Here is my thought process when I am determining whether or not to place a futures bet on a team to win the National Championship.

First, the new playoff system has completely changed how I think about betting futures, Let’s say a team with a reasonably easy schedule like Louisville had last year were to go undefeated and win AAC conference. A conference by the way that doesn’t have a conference championship game, which is a HUGE ADVANTAGE.

They go onto a theoretical 4 team playoff with Auburn, FSU, and Alabama. I’d make Louisville about a 10 point underdog to win their first game, but let’s say they win that game (they have about a 25 % chance to win the 1st game).

Now they’d be playing for the National Championship as a minimum 12 point underdog. The odds of Louisville pulling off back-to-back upsets as double digit dogs is remote (about a 20 % chance to win this game).

So you see just how hard it will be to run the table in the new final 4 format.

Additional Considerations

Another thing to consider when picking teams to win the national title is conference championship games are a huge deal and a huge setback when you want to back a team in a loaded conference like the SEC, PAC 12, or even the Big Ten.

This gives teams like FSU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas big advantages. I realize FSU will have to play an ACC Championship game if they run the table, however last year they played duke and were 28 point favorites to win the game (95% chance to win the game).

This year the ACC Coastal is so bad that there best team is most likely Miami or Virginia Tech. I would make FSU at least a 14 point favorite in that game (giving them about a 75% chance of winning the game).

Now lets talk about the teams that have to play legit conference championship games.

Let’s say a team like Arizona State, who has a daunting schedule to begin with, wins the PAC 12 South again this year. What present do they get in the PAC 12 Championship game? Stanford or Oregon (ouch). Depending on location, I’d make them at least a 7 point underdog against either team, which gives them about a 33% chance to win that game.

2014 National Championship Odds

All odds are derived from 5dimes.com.

Florida State – Pretty decent schedule. Oklahoma State (neutral site), Clemson, Notre Dame & Florida at home. Their only tough road games are at Louisville and at Miami, but they should be favored in both.

If they make it out of this schedule unscathed they have the ACC championship game, however, there are no heavyweights in the ACC Coastal to worry about.

In a 4 team playoff you’d probably be looking at teams like Alabama,Oregon, Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma and so on an so forth. So FSU would be looking at being a 3 point favorite or underdog in any of these games.

So I would say they should be at least 12/1 to make it through there schedule.  At 5dimes you can bet the field to win the national championship at -390 (implying you have to win this bet 79% of the time to turn a profit). It sucks laying -390 but it is a great bet, if u have to throw it in parlays.

Oregon– Decent schedule considering the PAC 12 is a murders row now a days. No back to back road games and their only true road test is at UCLA.

At home they have to fight off Michigan State, Washington, Arizona, and there arch nemesis Stanford (they don’t play the other studs of the conference in USC and Arizona State).

The PAC 12 Championship game would most likely be played against UCLA, USC or Arizona State and depending on location, they will most likely be favored anywhere from 3 to 7 points.

In the 4 team playoff Oregon will have to worry about playing strong, physical teams that get dominant defensive lineman who win in the trenches and make it difficult for Oregon’s offense to flourish.

All in all Oregon is basically a pick ’em against any heavyweight they are going to see in the final 4. Considering all these factors I would make Oregon 13/1 to win the national title (current pricing has Oregon 8/1 to win it)

Alabama – All their OOC games are cupcakes. With that being said they play in the best conference and best sub-conference in the country.

They play 3 road games in a 4 week span in hostile environments, They play at Ole Miss, at Arkansas, Texas A & M at home, then go on the road again to play an improving Tennessee team. They also play Florida and Auburn at home, but their toughest test will be at LSU on Saturday night on CBS.

If Alabama were to run the table, South Carolina, Georgia or Florida would most likely be waiting for them in the SEC Championship game. I’m going to assume that Alabama comes out as 7 point favorites in this game giving them about a 70% chance to win.

In the playoffs I’ll assume they will be at least a 3 point favorite over anybody. I wouldn’t take anything less than bama 11/1 to win it (current odds bama +550 to win Nat’l title)

Ohio State – While the Big Ten is mostly terrible, Ohio State ran the table two years in a row and still wouldn’t have made it to the final 4 in 2014 due to their loss in the Big Ten Championship game against Michigan State.

This just shows how hard it is to win the National title.

I really like Ohio State this year. They come back with super talented QB Braxton Miller and na improving defense.

Ohio State has a decided edge over every other Big Ten school when it comes to recruiting.

Their two toughest home games are against Virginia Tech and Michigan. On the road they get Maryland, Penn State, and Michigan State.

Their likely opponent in the Big Ten Championship game would be either Wisconsin, Nebraska or a rematch with Michigan State. They will more than likely be a 3 to 7 point favorite in this game.

In the four team playoff Ohio State is going to be a 3 point underdog to all the big boys they are likely to see. I wouldn’t take anything less than 14/1 here (current odds 10/1 to win National title)

Oklahoma – Let me first state that I think Oklahoma is vastly overrated and they aren’t a top 10 team, However they have a reasonably easy schedule and they don’t have to worry about a Big 12 Championship game.

Toughest home games include Tennessee, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Toughest road games are TCU, Texas Tech and the RRR against Texas.

In the four team playoff they will most likely be 7 point underdogs against all the big dogs. I wouldn’t take anything less than 20/1 here to win the National title. Even with the 20/1 I don’t think its going to happen, but at 20/1 you can hedge out of that bet to make a small profit at least.

UCLA – I really like this team and I believe they have one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the country, However the PAC 12 is just just murders row. The home schedule is nasty with Oregon, USC & Stanford coming to the Rose Bowl. On the road they have Arizona State and Washington. If that wasn’t tough enough they decided to play Texas in Jerry’s World.

If you thought that was bad, don’t forget the PAC 12 Championship game against most likely opponents Oregon or Stanford (ouch).

In the four team playoff I would assume UCLA would be around a 3 point favorite or underdog to any team they play. I wouldn’t take anything less than 35/1 here to win the National title. UCLA is a team that can make it to the playoff with 1 loss because of there daunting schedule, as far as hedging goes, the best time to hedge will be late in the season.

LSU – The schedule starts off with Wisconsin in a neutral site game in Texas, then they are at Auburn and Florida in back to back road games. They get a bye before the Alabama game, then they are at Arkansas, they get another bye before heading to College Station to take on Texas A & M..

An SEC Championship game would most likely match them u against Georgia, Florida, South Carolina or even Missouri.

I would expect them to be about a pick ’em against anyone in the four team playoff. I wouldn’t take anything less than 35/1 here for the National title. The current odds for LSU to win the National title are 20/1. At 35/1 you could hedge because like UCLA this is a team who can have 1 loss and still make the playoffs, Soo if youre gonna hedge u wanna do that after lsu looses 1 game.

USC – Totally impressed with how they finished last year. Cody Kessler looked great, they bring back big time receiver Nelson Agholor and have a plethera of running backs. Defensiveey they had a lot of studs last year, but they lose several of them and that makes this side of the ball my concern if I were to bet on USC.

They play Stanford and get UCLA, Notre Dame and Arizona State at home. As usual, ther PAC 12 Championship game opponent will most likely be Stanford or Oregon, and I’d make them around a 4 point dog to either team.

They would be at least a 4 point dog to any of theo ther three teams in the playoff. Therefore I wouldn’t take USC at anything less than 50/1, which happen to be their current odds.

So I will probably make a small wager at some point before that line goes down. Again hedging is probably your best bet at turning a profit here. If you bet $100 at 50/1, your potential win is $5k so there is a lot of room to make money here.

Georgia – I am not to sure about new QB, and head coach Mark Richt hasn’t won anything at Georgia in some time, Defensively they return a lot of experience, so they have to be better. Plus former DC Todd Grantham left (he did very little with a lot of defensive talent) and now UGA brings in hot shot coordinator Jeremy Pruitt from Florida State.

Schedule wise they get South Carolina, Missouri and Arkansas on the road, as well as the cocktail party against Florida in Jacksonville. At home they get Clemson and Auburn.

The SEC Championship game could Alabama or LSU, or even a rematch with Auburn. I would make Alabama or LSU 7 point favorites and Auburn around a pick.

In the playoffs they will be around a 3 to 7 point underdog to any of the other three opponents. I wouldn’t take anything less than 60/1 here. The current odds of UGA to win the National title are 48/1. So no buy point for me here.

The only way I can see Georgia making it to the final 4 is Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall continue to dominant and they get quality play from Huston Mason at QB. Even then they will still need their defense to step up dramatically from last year.

Texas – New coach, new attitude (Texas can only hope).

On to the schedule Texas plays two tough games at neutral sites against UCLA and Oklahoma. At home they get Baylor, BYU and TCU. On the road the toughest games appear to be Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. On the bright side they don’t have to worry about a big 12 championship game, which is crucial.

In the playoffs they will most likely be a 3 to 7 point dog against almost everybody. I wouldn’t take Texas at anything less than 50/1. Current odds of texas are 60/1 which is my buy point.

My concerns with making this bet is who knows what we’re gonna get from Texas? They could be 7-5 or 11-1, at 60-1 you can roll those dice and don’t forget to hedge out and make a profit when you have a chance.

When to Hedge

Always look to hedge out during live wagering. This is the best time to get the most bang for your buck.

You could have had Auburn at 100-1 last year to win the National Championship. Let’s say you decided to wait until the National Championship game. Uh oh, they’re 12 point underdogs, so you would have had to bet FSU on the ml at -300 which is horrible.

Now had you waited for in game betting you could have had FSU +230 at times during the game (big difference).

Always remember when hedging to bet the opposite team on the moneyline. I messed up last year, I had  Baylor at 300-1. I could have hedged late in the season and bet on Oklahoma State moneyline at +220, however I forgot to  make the bet,

The game gets going and Oklahoma State buries them right away, so I couldn’t make a good in-game bet either. Basically I get nothing from a beautiful bet of 300-1 on Baylor.

Florida State (+330) – The only way to hedge out of this one is in the final 4, which is why this would be a horrible bet.

Oregon (+800) – At +800 you have a little more wiggle room to work you’re magic. The game with Stanford will again decide everything for Oregon, that’s the first point, If they win that game you roll the dice on the PAC 12 Championship game an hope they make it into the final four. If they make it to the final 4 you can start to hedge on the first game.

Alabama (+550) – Don’t hedge on this one until Alabama has 1 regular season loss because they can still make the playoffs with 1 loss due to their tough SEC West schedule. You might want to start hedging in the SEC Championship game and so on and so forth with the playoffs.

Ohio State 10/1 – With Ohio State’s schedule they wont make the playoffs with 1 loss. So if they lose you can forget about hedging. Skip to the Big Ten championship game, hedge a little there and so on and so forth in the playoffs.

UCLA 20/1 – Their schedule is so daunting that they are a team that can make it with 1 loss, so don’t hedge anything until they have at least 1 loss. Week 13 & 14 they play USC & Stanford at home so there’s a good time to hedge out. If not wait until the PAC 12 Championship game.

Oklahoma 12/1 – Their schedule is soft that they wont make it with 1 loss, so be ready to hedge out earlier in the year. The Texas and Oklahoma State games would be the best times to pull the trigger and hedge out.

LSU 20/1 – LSU can make the playoffs with 1 loss. So don’t hedge out until they already have 1 loss. Possible hedges are the Alabama game, at Arkansas and at Texas A & M.

Georgia 48/1- Their schedule is pretty soft, so if they had one loss they’d have to win the SEC Championship game in order to stand a chance of making the four team playoff. So you might have to wait until the SEC Championship game. However they are likely to be an underdog of at least 7 points in that game, so your best bet is to go into live wagering and hope for a good number.

USC 50/1 – USC’s schedule is not that bad, but that means they can’t have a loss and make it to the playoffs. Your best bets to hedge are either at UCLA late in the season or in the PAC 12 Championship game.

Texas 60/1 – You might want to hedge out early here. They have tough tests right off the bat with BYU and UCLA in the first 3 weeks.

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