For those of us who did not have the seasons that we would have liked to have had, bowl season offers an opportunity to restore some handicapping confidence going into the offseason.  It is a poor time to chase losses due to the inability to handicap motivation of most of these teams, but it is a great chance to get back to some fundimental handicapping and attempt to put some positive units back into the ledger.

For the most part, I will be focusing on the ACC teams and their bowl games in my posts here.  I will be playing other bowl games (posted to my twitter) but want to keep my focus here to my conference of speciality.  Games will be added as they are played.

Bowls:  6-3 +1.55 U YTD

Plays:

3 units — Marshall Thundering Herd -3 (+100)

2 units — Syracuse Orange +4 (-110)

2 units — North Carolina Tar Heels -3 (+100)

2 units — Mississippi Rebels -3 (-105)

3 units — Boston College Eagles +7 -105 

3 units — Texas A&M Aggies -13 -105

2 units — Clemson Tigers +3

1 unit — Clemson Tigers ML +125

4 units — Florida State -9 -110

Write-ups 

4 units — Florida State -9 -110

I played this one relatively early as I felt the line would rise, as my power numbers had FSU -17 here and they have been pretty indicative of line movements all bowl season.  What I believe that we have here is a really tough match-up for Auburn, and a game that will see them struggle to keep pace with a Florida State team closing in on a historical season (won every game by 14 or more this year, won all but won by 27 or more).

Florida State as a team did everything well this year.  They ran the ball well (In my positional rankings they had my #9 rushing attack), they threw the ball well (#3 ranked passing attack) & they were excellent at stopping both (#8 run D & #2 pass D).  In fact, of the 20+ factors that I use when making my numbers and capping games, Auburn only has advantages in 4 of them (Strength of Schedule, Kick returns, run game & Oline).

Defensively, everything for FSU comes down to their ability to stop the run.  A big part of their advantage here for me is their excellent secondary; the Noles should be able to stay in basic man to man coverage here and still suceed against a largely unproven Auburn passing attack.  This leaves 8+ players available to dedicate toward the line of scrimmage on most plays, and will make it difficult for Auburn to consistently run the ball through open lanes.  FSU is loaded with next level talent all over the defense, and their speed on that side of the ball will prevent them from getting consistently beat to the edges.  Florida State was exceptional at preventing big plays in the ground game (allowed less than 10+ yard runs a game this year).  For Auburn to consistently move the ball, their going to have to be able to keep FSU off balance with their passing game, somthing that they haven’t had to do often this year (just my 61st ranked passing game).  FSU led the nation in pass defense despite being massively ahead for the larger portion of most of their games.

Florida State comes in with an offense that was very balanced this season, and actually skewed more toward the pass (55% run plays ranked 73rd nationally) more than one would expect based off of their ability to run up scores.  And it’s this passing game that poses to be a major issue for the Tigers as Auburn has my 96th ranked pass defense.  Auburn was awful at giving up plays in chunks this season (#106 in my big play rankings) and will struggle in space versus an FSU offense with elite athletes all over the field.  Auburn does do a good job of getting pressure on the QB, but Jameis Winston is elusive and proved himself to be a great decision maker on the field (nearly broken Russell Wilson’s passer effeciency record).  Florida State has a dynamic ground game (5.6 ypc = #9 nationlly) as well that will force Auburn to simultaenously respect both the run and the pass.  Auburn ranked #97 this year in yards per play allowed (6.09) which was the same # North Carolina State allowed.  Auburn has much better athletes than NCSU, but they really struggled schematically and now have to face a team where all 11 guys must be on the same page on each play.

My biggest concerns with FSU are the facts that they went completely untested all season (they blew everyone out) and that they are more than likely out-coached here (Gus is a fantastic coach).  But I do believe that this is a special team, and a team that is very eager to come out tonight and restore the program to it’s place among the national elite.    Florida State 41 – Auburn 19

ACC! ACC! ACC!

3 units — Texas A&M -13 -105

Everything I’m reading about Texas A&M points to them being really up for this game and to send Johnny off with a bang, which is a really bad sign for this Duke team.  This is a tremendous mismatch for the Devils if were comparing athletic ability, and though Duke had a very nice season they did it against teams that had very similar athletic ability to them (the notable acception is Miami, though the Canes were pretty banged up at the time coming off of back-2-back physical losses to FSU & VT).

Defensively, Duke just doesn’t match up with a team that has mulitple-dimensions like Texas A&M.  The Aggies have a huge advantage in the big play department, with their offense ranking #7 in that category going against a Duke defense that ranks 81st in that (against a schedule loaded with poor offenses at that).  Duke brings in my 82nd ranked pass defense, and will have a really hard time generating pressure on Manziel while keeping him from scrambling and making plays with his feet.  The Devils also rank #100 in my defensive big play passing D, so guys like Mike Evans will just be match-up nightmares in the secondary.

Offensively the match-up is more favorable for the Devils, but once again, their an offense with limited big-play ability (#71) going against a team that has better athletes top-to-bottom.  A&M’s defensive struggles were myriad this year, but they played a schedule loaded with top offenses that were able to exploit 1v1 matchups with a young defense.  Duke just doesn’t have the playmakers to consistently make plays at the 2nd level required to consistently move the ball against a defense that can beat you to the point of attack.

I get a bit of a feeling about Duke that their just happy to be in this game off a double-digit win season and a shot at the ACC title.  If the Aggies are motivated here, they will run Duke off the field in the 2nd half as their superior depth and speed take over.  Aggies 45 Devils 24

3 units — Boston College +7 -105 

Taking a TD with the BC Eagles here in a game where I made the line Arizona -2.5.  These teams are very similar in that both of them love to run the football (#8 & #16 in run play %), only here were getting a score with the team who has the higher ranked run game (#7 vs #22 in my ratings) and the stronger run defense (#26 vs #65).  In general the Pac-12 was a tougher conference than the ACC, but BC didn’t get a very easy ACC schedule and in fact played all 4 of the ACC’s top 25 run D’s (in those games Andre Williams averaged 6.1 yards per carry on a staggering 128 carries, and wasn’t held under 5.0 ypc once).

Arizona is one of the fastest paced teams in the country, but Boston College does a really good job of shortening the game on offense by running the ball and keeping the clock moving.  Look for the Eagles to use the running game here to keep a fast-paced Arizona offense off the field and limit their ability to wear down a relatively thin BC defense.  Arizona didn’t fare very well defensively against the better ground games they’ve seen this season, so I look for BC to be able to run the ball successfully here which will give a defense short on depth plenty of time to rest (Zona runs 20+ more plays a game than BC, so this is absolutely vital for the Eagles).

I’m backing what I feel is a dog that is overpriced considering the match-up & current form of both sides (Eagles winners of 4/5, Zona losers of 3/4).  Eagles 31 – Zona 28

 

 

2 units — Mississippi Rebels -3 (-105)

Did not have time for a write-up here, but essentially didn’t see any reason to expect GT to be ready to play here.  Rebel passing attack was a good match-up for the GT secondary that really struggled against the pass, and they have the athletes to contain the option.  Not sold on Vad Lee at this point to be able to beat teams with his arm when they know what is coming and have the speed + size to stop it.

2 units — North Carolina -3 (+100)

Feel like were getting some number value here against Cincy, I’ve got UNC favored by -5.5.  The biggest issue I have with Cincinnati is their schedule, their a team who built up big defensive numbers against a very soft schedule (my #107th ranked SOS didn’t even have them playing a team with a winning record until November 16th) filled with offenses who struggled moving the ball all season.

The strengths that Cincinnati do have don’t really match up very well with what North Carolina likes to do.  The Bearcats rank as a top 10 defensive line in my numbers, allowing only 3.16 yards per carry.  But their going against a North Carolina offense who doesn’t really had the ball off all that much (leading rusher in attempts and yards is QB Marquise Williams) and likes to spread the field to give Williams a bunch of lanes & favorable match-ups in the passing game.  UNC only runs the ball 53% of the time (92nd nationally) so will look to move the ball in the air vs this Cincy D that is largely untested against good passing teams (only played 1 top 40 team in passer rating).  Carolina also has a massive advantage in special teams (my #6 ST unit vs the #123 ranked Bearcat ST unit), so don’t be surprised to see them hit a big play or two in the kicking game.

North Carolina as a team certainly has their warts, but it’s a team who started 1-5 before rallying to win 6 of their last 7 games to qualify for a bowl after being ineligible last season.  Their reward is a bowl game in their home state versus a Cincinnati team that has to be disapointed to be back in the same bowl for a 2nd straight season after nearly winning 10 games in the regular season.  Tar Heels 34 Bearcats 28

3 units — Marshall Thundering Herd -3 (+100)

My power numbers made this line Marshall -8 on a true neutral field, which we probably don’t have here 25 miles from Maryland’s campus.  Nonetheless, I don’t see much about this Maryland side to like today.  The Terrapins really limped their way through ACC play after a strong non-conference start versus a weak schedule.  Of the Terrapins 3 ACC wins, two were against teams who combined to go 0-16 in ACC play and the other was a flukey game against Virginia Tech where they managed to score 27 points on 315 total yards.

One of the big issues this Maryland team has struggled with offensively is injuries, they’re season got derailed when QB CJ Brown went down in the FSU game.  Even though he came back a few games later, he was never able to recapture his early season form.  A big part of this was that the offense lost easily it’s top 2 playmakers in Deon Long & Stefon Diggs.  Brown is a solid dual threat quarterback but we he doesn’t have big play capabilities in the passing game it makes it much tougher to consistently move the ball (Maryland ranked #119 in 3rd/4th down conversions).  While Marshall played a bunch of average / bad offenses this season, we haven’t seen anything from Maryland over the last two months that makes me think their very capable of matching points in a shootout (1 game over 30 points in ACC play).

A shootout is just what Marshall would prefer, they have a strong passing attack that relies on a high tempo (75 plays a game) to disrupt the rythym of defenses and keep the chains moving.  Maryland was a solid defense on 3rd / 4th down this year, though looking at their schedule you will see that it was littered with poor offenses (only faced two offenses that ranked in the top half of the NCAA in yards per game).  Marshall has a strong offense that can break big plays (#10 in my explosive plays rankings), convert on 3rd down (4th nationally) & finish in the red zone (#9 overall in red zone effeciency).

An argument can be made that Marshall has little to be motivated about here after getting smacked around by Rice in the CUSA title game, but you could make the same argument against a Maryland team that was ranked at one point and is now playing a bowl game right in their backyard against a small-conference opponent.  I feel like I’ve got line value with an explosive Marshall offense against a Terp defense that hasn’t really been tested through the air very often this season.  I think the ACC has a pretty solid bowl season as they are undervalued, but I don’t Maryland’s chances to get a win in their final game with the conference.  Marshall 41, Maryland 28

 

2 units — Syracuse Orange +4 (-110)

Simply put, these are two teams who come from very similar conferences, have very similar styles of play & have very similar overall talent levels.  The difference is that one of these teams is getting more than a FG from the oddsmakers in what figures to be a close, low scoring game (my projected total is 50).  Both of these teams will look to run the football (both in the top 36 in run play %) and both are absolutely awful at throwing it (both in my bottom 16 of my passing power numbers).  Syracuse rates a little higher in both my sets of numbers for running the ball (33 vs 47) & stopping the run (73 vs 83) and is stronger on 3rd/4th downs (#15 vs #46) against a tougher schedule (#43 vs #59).  All of my power numbers mad Minnesota a very small favorite (less than 1) so we are getting about a FG of value here.  Orange 27 Gophers 21