Bowl season has arrived and for college football bettors it should be looked upon as an entirely new season.  It will also be a little tougher to find value, as the oddsmakers have had time and 14 weeks of college football to sharpen the line.  But don’t get too discouraged. There are ways to find value in the postseason.  

In this article I will give you 3 things to look for when evaluating a bowl game and how you can put the odds in your favor.  Then we will look at 3 match-ups that support it.  First, let’s articulate what we’re looking for.

COACHES –  The head coach has more pressure these days to win games than ever before.  Boosters and alumni love to watch their teams win, particularly during the holidays.  It used to be, a coach had at least 5 years to prove his worth, allowing a full cycle of his own recruits to touch the field, but those days are long gone.  Now head coaches are expected to win IMMEDIATELY.

So how do we tell when a coach may be feeling a little heat from his AD?  Simple…first, look for teams (with the same coaching staff) that went to a bowl last year and were routed (20 or more points).

Second, look for teams that have lost 2 bowl games in a row.  Whether it’s being routed or losing consecutive bowl games, plenty of heat will be on the coach to perform and win.  The very last thing alumni and fans want to do is spend thousands of dollars on travel, hotel and tickets to watch their team either lose AGAIN or get THUMPED,

REVENGE –  Do your homework, revenge happens more than you think .  You’ll be surprised of how many teams played their bowl opponent last year.  Sometimes they will play them twice. Once in the regular season and again in postseason (anyone remember how Les Miles fared against Nick Saban the second time around?).  This becomes even more of a valued scenario when you have 15 or more returning starters and the same QB and coach.

MOTIVATION –  Who really wants to play?  Who really wants to be there?  Look for mid-conference teams playing the BIG BOYS.   All season long the smaller conferences have to listen to media talk about the PAC-12 or SEC players and coaches..  Now, finally they get their chance in a bowl game to prove their critics wrong. Meanwhile the big conference teams are busy complaining about playing a sub-par team…so they think.

Also… look for teams that are loaded with seniors.  It will be their last game and they typically will leave it all on the field. 

And lastly, find teams that are coming off a big loss in their last game of the regular season.  Players and coaches will be ready to prove they belong in a bowl game. 

Examples for this Bowl Season

Okay…now that we have a clear idea of what we are looking for, let’s look at some examples that support it. 

Washington State vs Colorado State:

Colorado State- Head coach Jim McElwain is in his 2nd year coaching, so this will be his first bowl game.  This is a “David and Goliath”  match-up between the Mountain West and PAC-12 conferences   The most significant factor to consider is they have 15 seniors playing in their last game.  Practically the entire offensive line will be gone next year.  This team is getting prepared to fight.  Average bettors are looking at a 4 point spread and are racing to put money down on Washington State because they feel the line is way off.

Fresno State vs Southern California:

Fresno State- This is Tim DeRuyter’s 2nd year at Fresno State.  He is 0-1 in bowl games.  He lost to SMU last year in the Hawaii Bowl 43-10.  Senior QB Derrik Carr had 2 interceptions in that bowl game.  This will be the Bulldogs last chance to prove they were legit contenders for a BCS berth, by beating a surging PAC 12 team. And how many head coaches can the Trojans go through in one season?

Tulane vs UL Lafayette: 

Tulane- 2 very interesting notes about this game.  Tulane will play about 8 miles from campus in the Super Dome, and they played UL Lafayette last year and were throttled 41-13.  And from that brutal loss, they return 16 players.

Remember these factors when deciding which game you will be betting, along with your trends, formulas, etc. Having these scenarios on your side will most certainly give you an edge come game day.

Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.