College football win totals: 2012 Iowa Hawkeyes
Last week we took a look at how Kirk Ferentz and Iowa, despite solid recruiting and player development, aren’t winning enough games on the field. I thought a perfect follow up to that story would be for me to project Iowa’s college football win totals for the 2012 season.
Tags Betting strategiesbetting tipsIowa HawkeyesSeason win totals
- Previous College Football Win Totals – Will Alabama Repeat?
- Next TSE’s Top 10 College Football Preseason Betting Resources
7 thoughts on “College football win totals: 2012 Iowa Hawkeyes”
Leave a Reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I believe they will surprise people this year. New coordinators and coaches have given to a new revival for Kirk Ferentz. I think offensively they will be much better than last year, and I believe the defensive line will be a big surprise!
Thanks for the comment Willand. The Hawkeyes definitely have the schedule to surprise. They should be able to go 8-4 minimum, and with a few breaks, 9-3 isn’t out of the question. However, I am still a little skeptical as to how much better, if at all, the offense will be.
Why do you feel the DL will be a big surprise? They lost 3 pretty good starters and are projected to start 2 redshirt-freshmen this year.
Still tough to see them beating either Michigan school on the road, so those 4 “toss up” games should be the difference between a really good season (10-2, 9-3) or an average season (7-5, 8-4).
Nice capping
I like your % on possible wins?
Thanks Crapgame. We’ll see how good the capping is at the end of the season. 5Dimes still hasn’t released a season win total on Iowa yet, so at this point I really don’t even know if I will make the wager.
To get an approximate win/loss % the first thing I did was set an arbitrary point spread to each game. Then I converted that point spread to an approximate money line and then convert that money line into an implied probability.
From that % number you can add (or subtract) any potential mitigating factors that you believe could be important to come up with a number you feel comfortable with.
Using Michigan State as an example, I figured Iowa will be an underdog anywhere from 7-10 points (Iowa was a 9 point dog @ Nebraska last season, which was their largest Big 10 underdog spread). A 7 point dog is usually anywhere from +225 to +275 on the money line, which is an implied probability of 27% to 31%.
Instead of using 31% (or 27%), I rounded up to 35% because despite both teams losing quite a bit, Sparty did lose QB Cousins and Iowa (hopefully) will have a senior QB available in this game.
Both teams are also very familiar with each other and in a game that at least at this point shapes up to be a defensive battle, I thought a slightly higher win% in Iowa’s favor was warranted.
Thanks for leaving your comment.
Pez
Iowa season win totals are now out at 5Dimes.
Over 7.5 (+120)
Under 7.5 (-140)
I like the over odds and will be on the Hawkeyes to get to 8 regular season wins this year.
There are more question marks at Iowa this year than I can ever remember. New O Line and D Line coordinators and shuffled around and new assistent coaches. We lost lots of good players on both sides of the ball,but have some good talent coming back and some good new talent coming in. Vandenburg is one of the best Quarterbacks in the Big Ten and perhaps the country. Keenen Davis is very good wide receiver if he can stay healthy. Lots of other good players like The James Gang (Morris and Ferentz). Then, also the players will have to stay out of trouble with the law. And remember games are won and lost up front on the line! It could be anywhere from a 3 or 4 win season to a Big Ten Championship (I really mean that). It all goes on how the coaches and players adapt and how hard the players are willing to work and put their heart and souls into the game. GO HAWKEYES!!!!!!
Richard B., thanks for the insight into the Hawkeyes. I believe Iowa will win all their OCC games and worst case scenario split the B1G games.
Like yourself, our B1G writer Maggiore also believes the Hawks have the potential to be win the Legends division, though they certainly would be a long-shot: https://dailysportsedge.com/2637/legends-and-leaders-who-will-improve-who-is-overrated-2/
He also believes they’ll win at least 9 games, which I think it optimistic, but definitely doable with their schedule.
Thanks again for the comment – Pez.