Below is a quick email exchange between GoSooners and I discussing a few of this weeks games. Please let us know what you guys think about each game and who you are looking at. Thanks.

 

 

Bowling Green +4.5

Pez:  I actually hit NIU -3 early in the week thinking the number was too low and would go up. Kind of like Bowling Green …. Better D getting points …… I got NIU +2 on a neutral field 

GoSooners: This could be the best MAC championship game in years. I’ve made a lot of money off of BG the last couple of years. I’m a little surprised to see the line go up from the opening number. But I guess it’s the Lynch factor. Maybe rightly so. But my line is BG -3.5. So some value there. But still scary with NIU having a chance to make 10 million for the conference with another BCS game. I wonder who is going to get all of those holding calls? BG still on my radar for a possible half unit play.

UCONN PK

Pez:  Last time I thought Memphis had no business being a road fav they kicked my ass (vs USF) ….. UCONN has won 2 games in a row and playing much better now towards the end of the season.

GoSooners: I love UCONN this week and the chance of making this an official play are very good. Memphis is done. Warm weather team heading north after suffering another blowout loss. UCONN the better team on D right now. Memphis doesn’t have a passing game to speak of. How are they going to move the ball? UCONN run D has been a brick wall. UCONN playing their asses off for sub HC Weist. This looks like a great under the radar game.

Texas/Baylor ……Under 72?

Pez: Can Texas D slow Baylor down? Is Baylor’s D good enough to make Texas struggle offensively? Both teams like to run the ball …. I’ve been pretty unimpressed with the Texas offense, though your boy Case seems to hit a receiver every now and then.

GoSooners: I really had my mind set to play Baylor this week. It’s a shame that this game will be hampered by bad weather. I think Texas will attempt to run the ball as much as possible to keep the clock moving and avoid the blowout. I don’t believe Mack Brown will chance it too much in the passing game with McCoy, who makes too many mistakes on the road. Maybe the under if I play it at all. I want to see exactly what the weather is before I do anything. Neither team is used to or likes this kind of weather.

SMU +10

Pez: Does UCF choke or roll? After Cincinnati losing last night, UCF is officially BCS bound so what do they have to play for here? SMU has had a few good games, but they’ve mostly been rolled. Read where June may be heading back to Hawaii???

GoSooners: Going pass on this one. Too many unknowns. No idea if the SMU QB gets to start. And if he does is he healthy? If he doesn’t, backup? My line is just UCF -5. But how do you really determin line value for this game? Pass.

Rice +6 ans/or Over 61? 

Pez: Marshall can score and the Rice offense is pretty good too. Is Rice’s D really C-USA’s best?

GoSooners: My line is the same as the game line. So probably no value there. I’ll take a look at the total later and see if there is any value there.

Missouri +2, Sparty +5.5 (hoping for 6), Stanford +3 (should have taken the 4)

Pez: They all have the better D’s getting points ….. Stanford & Missou are PRD (numbers don’t support it, but if Sparty shuts down the OSU run game they could possibly outrush Ohio State too).

GoSooners: I played the total because I honestly can’t pick a winner here with Mizzou/AU. I might possibly play Mich St. for a half unit. But I’m still a little uneasy about picking this game. Still looking at it. I haven’t got to Stanford/ASU yet. But I have a feeling that the better D may come more into play than OSU/MSU game. Mainly because Stanford and ASU are more on a level playing field. I’m not sure MSU is on the same level field as OSU on a neutral field, but we’ll find out. Plus advantage Stanford for being on the Big Stage before. It’s all new to ASU. But I’ll be rooting for the Fork if I’m not betting against them.

MSU/OSU & ASU/Stanford UNDER 52 & 56

Pez: I particularly like the ASU game possibly going under (first game total closed at 51.5 & it flew over). ASU was losing 39-7 before Stanford allowed some garbage points late & I believe the Devil D has improved enough that I really doubt Stanford gets anywhere near approaching 42 again …….. thinking something more like 27-24 game ……….. don’t think either team sees 30, but ……..

GoSooners: I actually like the over for OSU/MSU. They’ve got great D numbers, but I’m not sure MSU’s defense is as elite as everybody thinks. Nebraska moved it up and down the field on them with a freshman QB. But those 5 TO’s did in the Huskers. I think OSU can move it on Sparty because I believe their offense is even better and much more disciplined than Nebraska’s. . I think Sparty can move it on a less than elite OSU D. I can see a game where the winner gets into the 30’s. No opinion yet on ASU/St. total

Utah State +3.5

Pez: This is the game I really, really like, but just can’t get my mind around how low the number is. Shouldn’t this one be around a TD w/ the season Fresno has been having? Fresno has won 12 in a row at home and they own USU ……… USU has also suffered a lot of injuries this year that they have (so far) overcome, at least in MWC play. I just think that Fresno will be flat after their BCS dreams went down the tube last week & USU is by far the better D ….. just hate that game is at Fresno and I’m not getting at least a TD.

GoSooners: I haven’t looked too much at this game yet. I will tonight. But you would think Fresno would come out flat after shooting their wad last week. But it doesn’t always happen if a team has a good coach who can pick them up off the floor. Isn’t Utah State kind of a mess with all of their injuries?