College Football Win Totals – Will Alabama Repeat?
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3 thoughts on “College Football Win Totals – Will Alabama Repeat?”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
As far as betting win totals go, I really don’t think Bama is the best bet either way. I agree with Pezgordo in that I don’t think Bama will repeat as national champions. It seems to be an “every other year, ” type of pattern with the hot SEC teams. They win an SEC/National Championship with a loaded team. Then they take one year to reload and negotiate a difficult schedule. Then the next year win it again. This has been the modus operandi of Saban and Bama the last 3 years. And it was also the same route that Meyer went through at Florida with their 2 national titles. Win, then reload and endure 3 losses or so, then win it again the next year.
My problem with betting Bama is in order to play that under total you’ve got to pay the extra juice (-180). There used to be a time that I would risk it as long as the juice was under -200. But the older I get, the less I like to have my money tied up in my books trying to play too many totals and prop plays. When you think about it, isn’t the purpose of playing totals to go against the public? When your paying that much juice, you are basically making a public play. And you are also making a much bigger risk/reward play. Personally, I would much rather tie up my money making several bets at (+) juice than having my money tied up with a majority of (-) juice bets. You lose one or two of those (-) bets and your basically not making any money when all is said and done. I would much rather cash the one or two big (+) plays. But that’s just me. If I was to see what looked like a down and dirty great bet at say -125, I might make that kind of risk because it isn’t a whole lot different than the -110 juice you pay during the season. But I wouldn’t go any higher. Like I said, it’s all about how much of your money you really want tied up, when you could be putting it to good use in certain great spots during the season.
Good points GS. I do not mention anywhere in the article if I was going to take the UNDER 10.5 (-180). The answer is no. I am in agreement that -180 for a season wins total is just too much juice for me personally to give and have my money tied up for 5 or 6 months.
With the heavy juice at 10.5 wins, the oddsmakers seem to be saying that Alabama will probably lose at Baton Rouge (this will most likely be the only game the Tide are underdogs) and then the public needs to decide, will they (Alabama) or won’t they get upset in at least one of those other games I had mentioned.
As I suggest in my article, I believe they will end up losing at least one of those games (Michigan, Arkansas, Missouri or Tennessee all away) and not achieve 11 regular season wins.