The 24th-ranked Fresno State Bulldogs host the Utah State Aggies Saturday night in the first Mountain West championship game.

I was really looking forward to this match-up and thought that despite Fresno State’s loss last week to San Jose State, we would still see an inflated line. I was really surprised when this game opened at Fresno State -3.5 at most sports betting sites like SportsBettingOnline.ag. I thought we’d see a number closer to a TD.

After all the Bulldogs have won 12 straight home games and Utah State hasn’t so much as sniffed a victory at Fresno in at least two decades. The closest the Aggies have come was a 24-24 tie in 1990. Fresno State has taken five straight and eight of nine from the Aggies.

In addition Fresno State has one of the top offenses in the country and is led by NFL caliber QB Derek Carr.

“He’s got an NFL arm,” Utah State head coach Matt Wells said. “He’s very, very accurate and he has one of the quickest releases I’ve ever seen. I’ve seen enough of them to know how good they are.”

Carr leads the FBS with 45 touchdowns and 405.6 passing yards per game. He has thrown at least one TD pass in 31 straight, the longest active streak in the country.

Utah State’s middle-of-the pack offense is led by freshman QB Darrell Garretson, who took over after Chuckie Keaton was injured in the BYU game on October 4^th. Garretson has passed for 1,127 yards and nine touchdowns with just four interceptions during the better part of seven games in Keeton’s absence.

Fresno State QB Derek Carr

Letdown factor

Utah State clearly has the better defense. The Aggies rank 11^th in the country in total defense, allowing 321.5 yards per game and 7^th in scoring defense, allowing 16.8 points per game.

What’s even better is USU’s defense has played exceptional on the road this season. The Aggies are allowing just 18.8 points and 356.8 yards of total offense per outing in six contests away from Romney Stadium.

Fresno State is terrible on defense. The Bulldogs are allowing 436.9 yards per game (101^st in the country) and 30.2 points per game (83^rd in the country).

But I believe the real issue in this game is the perceived mindset of Fresno State. The Bulldogs have got to be crushed after having their perfect season and BCS dreams dashed last week.

“Guys are tore up, as well they should be,” Carr told the school’s official website.

Offense vs Defense

The game matches the Mountain West Conference’s top offense, Fresno State, against the number 1 defense in the MWC, Utah State.

It should make a very good, entertaining game.

I love the better defense getting points, especially in a potential letdown spot. But the fact the game is in Fresno and the line is less than I had expected does give me pause.