I decided to take week 10 off from posting a thread with my thoughts, as honestly my head wasn’t in the right place following an 0-4 week that saw me get brutally backdoored in 3 of the games.  Sometimes things just aren’t running well, and for me when you aren’t catching any breaks the best course of action is to take some time off and to recalibrate your perspective.  Their is a lot to like with this card in week 11, so hopefully I can make up some ground and get back on the winning track.  Best of luck to everyone this week!

Year to Date: 12-20 –25.39 units 

	Wins	Loses	Units
NCAAF Week 1	1	3	-4.50
NCAAF Week 2	0	3	-6.66
NCAAF Week 3	4	1	9.70
NCAAF Week 4	0	3	-12.20
NCAAF Week 5	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 6	2	3	-3.63
NCAAF Week 7	1	1	-0.30
NCAAF Week 8	4	2	5.45
NCAAF Week 9	0	4	-13.25
NCAAF Week 10	0	0	0.00

Week 11 Plays

3 units — North Carolina State Wolfpack +9.5 -110

3 units — Virginia Tech Hokies +7 -115 

3 units — North Carolina Tar Heels -13.5 -110

3 units — Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 -110

4 units — Wyoming Cowboys +9 -110

2 units — Florida State – Wake Forest Under 56 -115

3 units — Kansas St. Wildcats +3 -115

Week 11 write-ups

3 units — North Carolina State Wolfpack +9.5 -110

I’ve been fading NCSU for most of the season, it’s a clear rebuilding season in Raleigh and they just don’t have the personnel this year to be very effective offensively.  This week however finds them in what I think is a pretty solid spot.  Duke finds themselves in a ‘fat & happy’ spot this week, coming off a huge upset against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg that clinched bowl eligibility.  They did have a bye week last week which mitigates some of that, but the Devils have Miami on deck in what is actually setting up as a key game in the ACC Coastal race.  North Carolina State comes into this game off a home rivalry loss to North Carolina.

You could construe that as a spot for NCSU to give up, but I think they actually match-up pretty decently here and are healthier than they’ve been in a couple of months.  Offensively they don’t have very many playmakers but they’ve now gotten QB Brandon Mitchell and WR Rashard Smith completely healthy.  Duke has put up some really impressive defensive numbers the past few weeks until you realize that they weren’t playing good offenses (navy #79, VT #108 & UVA #116 in my numbers).  North Carolina State doesn’t rank much better, but most of those stats were accrued with their 2nd string QB and without their only real explosive playmaker.

Last season after reaching bowl eligibilty at 6-2 Duke lost their remaining 5 games both SU and ATS.  This year going bowling isn’t the groundbreaking accomplishment that it was last season, but I feel that they may let off the gas here and underrate an NCSU team that is as close to healthy as they’ve been all season.  Devils 35 – NCSU 31

3 units — Virginia Tech Hokies +7 -115 

Quite simply, what we have here is a great spot to back the Hokies.  VT looks to get back into the ACC Coastal race following 2 straight losses with a win against a depleted and deflated Miami team.  Historically fading previously undefeated teams this late in the season following their first loss has been pretty successfuly, and getting a top 5 defense going against an offense that recently lost their top 2 playmakers (Duke Johnson and Phillip Dorsett) makes me think that UM is in for a long day offensively.  Their isn’t a lot to like about the VT offense, but I’m counting on the Hokie defense to put them in good field position and continue to make things difficult for their opponents.  This has every making of a tightly contested, low scoring game and I’ll take a score with the really good defense.  Virginia Tech 21 Miami 17

3 units — North Carolina Tar Heels -13.5 -110

I said a few weeks ago that I thought this UNC team still had a great chance to go bowling, even though they were 2-5 and coming off a couple of lopsided losses.  UNC faced a really front loaded schedule, and it’s evened out here on the back stretch as the face most of the also-rans of the ACC down the stretch.  This week the Heels run into a UVA team that is absolutely mailing it in at this point in the year, they can’t go bowling and honestly haven’t shown much effort in fighting for hot-seat coach Mike London.

North Carolina is missing their “starting” QB Brynn Renner for the rest of the year, but they’ve already been splitting duty between Renner and Marquise Williams, and now will turn the keys over to Williams full time.  Williams is much more of a duel threat passer and will really test a UVA defense who tends to give up yards in bunches (#118 in defensive explosion plays).

We have two teams heading in exact opposite directions, and the fact that UNC is only 3-5 and lost their nominally starting QB is what is keeping this line below 17.  I’ve been fading UVA all season, and right now I’m bullish on this UNC team to finish up the season strong and qualify for a bowl.  I don’t trust the UNC defense enough to go big here, but everything points to a comfortable Tarheel victory.  North Carolina 39 Virginia 17

 

 

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