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For your consideration: Week # 11

Sep 14, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers running back James Conner (40) on the field before playing the New Mexico Lobos against at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pay Back 

Under the right circumstances, revenge can be a beneficial handicapping tool in college football.   In this article I will give you 3 situations to apply to your revenge game; this will make the bet a much stronger play.  In addition, we will find 3 games for this weekend that match these criteria. Here are the 3 situations to look for in a revenge match-up:

1. Returning starters:  The more returning starters you have, the more memories and emotions you get.  The perfect scenario would be a veteran QB that had a horrible game against this team last year.  It becomes much easier from a coaching standpoint as well. Going over last year’s film and showing mistake after mistake. It becomes easier to get the players attention and develop a winning game plan.

2. Coaching staff:  More than likely if there was a failure of execution from the players, there was a failure to teach from the coaches.  Therefore, we look for the same coaching staff of last year.  Think about it…with the fierce competitive nature of being a coach, the last thing they need on their resume is getting thumbed again by the same team two years in a row.

3. Humiliating/memorable loss:  A game that sticks out like a sore thumb.  The most points scored that year, a loss that kept them out of a bowl game, most turnovers in school history. You get the idea.  Look for specific situations in which the team was embarrassed and can’t wait to get back on the field to regain their self pride.

Now that we have the situational components of a revenge game, here are 3 games/examples this Saturday that meet them:

  • Pitt – If you remember, Pitt had this game well in hand, leading the undefeated Irish 20-6 in the 4th quarter of last year.  The game went into overtime after Notre Dame scored a 2 point conversion with little time left in regulation.  Pitt ended up losing the game in the 3rd overtime, keeping Notre Dame’s national championship dream alive.  This year Pitt returns 15 starters, 8 of which are on defense.  This will be Paul Chryst’s 2nd go around with the golden domers of South Bend.
  • Arizona – The Wildcats suffered their worst loss of the season last year to UCLA 66-10 in Pasadena.  The Bruins collected over 610 yards of total offense and dominated the trenches.  All 11 defensive players are back for Arizona (pending injuries) and a veteran coaching staff to go along with it.
  • UNLV – At home and coming off a loss.  A much improved Rebels team will look to revenge last year’s loss where they gave up over 560 yards of total offense.  The Rebels have nearly every starter back from last year, including their 4th year head coach, Bobby Hauch.  A win on Saturday can get the Rebels a much awaited bowl berth.  An accomplishment the program has not achieved in 13 years.

There’s no doubt as we get further into the college football season (especially November) finding value in the point spread can be most challenging, But I would think twice before betting against these teams.  Motivation and determination will be on their side.

Consider:

Pittsburgh +4

Arizona +1

UNLV +10


Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.


 

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