So at roughly the halfway point in the season I wanted to take a look back at the teams I highlighted at the beginning of the season as “Play On” teams and “Fade” teams to not only see how they have fared, but to decide if they still merit consideration going forward.  With two matchups involving teams from each category I felt this would be a good time to take the temperature of each team.  You can find the original article here.

The “$20 Bill in Your Winter Coat Pocket” Teams

Missouri

Talk about hitting a home run…7-0 ATS!!!  I felt that their offensive weapons would make them dangerous and following a losing season they would be getting value on the spread.  They currently rank #9 in scoring offense and #12 in offensive yards/play.

Crystal Ball:  While the run has been fun, it might be time to get off the Mizzou train.  While backup QB Mauk looked good in his first start against Florida, he doesn’t have the experience Sr starter Franklin has, and the pressure of conference play and meaningful November games might be a bit much for the rFr.  Maybe more importantly, all value on the spread is gone.  Case in point:  Last week Mizz was a +3 at home to Florida, and their GOY line vs “Fade” team S Carolina was +7.  They’re currently -3 at home to Cocky.  It’s gonna be hard to find them as a dog moving forward, which means they’ll have to win out to beat the spread in their next 5 games, all in conference.  I don’t like the chances of that happening.

Minnesota

I felt that their run game would keep them in games and that their soft early schedule would provide an opportunity for them to start the year off successfully.  They’re currently enjoying a 4-2 ATS season, mainly because of that easy start and a run game averaging over 200 ypg.

Crystal Ball:  With 5 wins this season, Minnesota will be playing meaningful games the rest of the season as they try to gain bowl eligibility for the second straight year.  They have three conference home games left and will most likely be dogs in each one, including this week as they’re catching double-digits vs “Fade” team Nebraska.  I still see a positive return moving forward for the Gophers.

East Carolina

The team I knew least about, I just felt that they had the characteristics of a successful ATS team.  And sitting at 3-3 vs the line, that pretty much sums how much I knew about them!!

Crystal Ball:  I’m gonna take my ball and go home on this team.  Juicing out on a speculative play is nothing to be ashamed about.

The “Rocks in Your Candy Bag on Halloween” Teams

Nebraska

I felt that with a porous defense and a rocky finish to last season that Big Red would be overvalued coming into the season.  And while their defense ranks in the bottom half of the standings in most statistical categories, the Huskers have compiled a 4-2 ATS record (or 2-4 if fading them) to start the season.

Crystal Ball:  They now face the tough part of their schedule, with 5 of their last 6 opponents bowl eligible from 2012, as compared to just 2 of their first 6.  They’ll be favored in 5 of their remaining 6 games, starting with this week laying -10.5 at Minnesota.  Conference road games vs Michigan and PennState, along with this week’s double-digit spread vs the Gophers, is a lot different than laying -8.5 at home to Illinois and -13 at Putrid Purdue.  Fade Away!!

Iowa State

I felt that this team would challenge Kansas as the worst in the Big 12, and with an unforgiving schedule, this team would be worn down from the middle of the season onward.  That might have started to show last week, as they were beat down by Baylor 71-7, only scoring in the last minute to avoid the shutout.

Crystal Ball:  3-2 ATS is pretty good for a 1-5 team that started the season with a loss to FCS Northern Iowa.  As the season wears down, I think this team does as well.

NC State

A new coach, QB, and an overall lack of talent led me to believe that the Wolf Pack were a prime candidate to fade.  And after starting out 3-0 ATS (including a back-door cover vs Clemson), NC St has lost their last two conference games straight up as favorites.

Crystal Ball:  Hard to suggest a fade for a team getting +32 this weekend, but with 3 of their next 4 on the road in conference, along with breaking in a new (and inexperienced) QB, I think the right side will be the other side in Wolf Pack games for the rest of the season.

South Carolina

Arguably the most over-hyped team to accomplish next to nothing coming into the season (unless that Clowney hit in the bowl game counts for something extra that I’m unaware of…), I felt this team was the typical over-exposed, inflated media creation that savvy bettors can make money off of at the beginning of the season.  And while history doesn’t always repeat itself, it often does rhyme, and did so again this year with Cocky starting the season 2-5 ATS.

Crystal Ball:  You might have gotten all you can out of fading South Carolina this year, as witnessed by them now being lined as underdogs in this week’s matchup with “Play On” team Missouri.  And with their last four games at home, this team could play to it’s potential.  Pick and choose wisely.

Full disclosure… I have the following futures tickets:  Neb u9.5/NC St u7/Iowa St u5.5

Wishing you a “green” weekend!

T$

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