Hey guys. Below are some plays I like this week. As usual, if you have any comments or questions feel free to leave them below. You can also follow me on Twitter @Smithers513. Good luck!

Marshall -8 @ Middle Tennessee

The Thundering Herd will head to Middle Tennessee to face the Blue Raiders for a Thursday night prime time on Fox Sports 1. I normally hate playing road chalk, but this is a matchup I can’t pass on. Although Middle Tennessee is the home team, don’t think for a second Marshall isn’t pumped up to be playing on a national stage on a Thursday night. Both teams are coming off a bye. Middle Tennessee is currently on a 3 game losing streak, being outscored by BYU, East Carolina, and North Texas by a combined score of 95-34. The Blue Raiders benefit from having an extra week to prepare for Marshall’s passing attack, but preparing and actually executing are two different things. Marshall is an efficient offensive team, and have a damn good QB in Rakeem Cato. Looking at the teams MTSU has played that I would consider efficient on offense, they have given up 40, 37, 24, and 34. MTSU gives up on average 30 points a game, and now they are going against arguably the best offense they’ve faced with two weeks of prep. Marshall likely gets to 35 points. Does MTSU get to 27? I don’t think so. They are 106^th in the country in passing yards per game and 100^th in points per game, and they are going to have to break off big plays to match Marshall and make this a one score game. And despite Marshall’s big name for offense, they quietly sport the nation’s 14^th best scoring defense. If Marshall shows a pulse and isn’t -2 or worse in turnover margin, they should get a cover Thursday night.

Western Michigan at UMass -3. Over/Under 46

This may be the second most terrible game I’ve ever placed a wager on. I would not recommend watching this, especially once you figure out what I’m playing. Western Michigan and UMass are a combined 1-14 this year, so we see a line at UMass -3. This line is basically saying both of these teams suck equally, so UMass is a favorite due to home field. Western Michigan is coming off a two game home stretch against Buffalo and BallState, losing both contests by a combined score of 71-17. Now they get to the hit the road for a big road game against the Minutemen! UMass has been a scrappy 1-7 (if possible), and even won a game two weeks ago against MiamiOH. I am going to play under 46 points being scored. This play doesn’t require a ton of logic. When you look at UMass and Western Michigan offensively in passing yards, rushing yards, and points per game, the best national ranking between the two schools is 93^rd. In fact, they are above 100 in the nation in every other aspect. The Broncos average 13 points a game, and the Minutemen 7. I see a disgusting, repulsive display of football being shown on Saturday and because of the ineptitude of the offensive units of these teams, I’m confident taking the under. The only way I see this going over is if we see 2-3 touchdowns on special teams or defense.

Toledo @ Bowling Green -3.5

The Toledo Rockets will head to Bowling Green to face off in a MAC showdown between two teams that are vying for a spot to the conference championship game in different divisions. Toledo is coming off a 45-44 2OT win last week at home against Navy. Bowling Green is coming off a bye, with their game before that being a 21-20 loss at MississippiState. I feel like we are catching some serious value with BGSU right now. This is a rivalry game in Northwestern Ohio, so I give both teams an equal motivational edge going into the game. However, going 2 OT’s with Navy could definitely have a lingering effect on Toledo. BGSU plays great defense, ranking 9^th in the NCAA in points allowed. If you toss out BGSU’s 42-10 thumping at Indiana, they have been damn impressive. I have Bowling Green pegged as the better team through and through, and getting them at home under a touchdown in their biggest home game so far this year feels like something I can’t resist. I see this line going north to 6 or 7, so I would suggest getting in early on this game.

Tulsa @ Tulane +3

This line is absolutely baffling to me. I hope that this isn’t the classic sucker spot, but I see enough evidence to back taking the Green Wave. Tulsa is coming off a bye, but won 34-20 at UTEP the week prior, getting only their 2^nd win of the year, against a UTEP team that is 1-5. Tulane is also coming off a bye, getting the biggest win the program has had in a long time with a 36-33 OT win over East Carolina. Tulane finds themselves squarely in the hunt for a C-USA title, and I just don’t see how they don’t have max effort in this game. If they did not have a bye in between the ECU game and the Tulsa game, I’d have some concern, but the bye should have them focused to perform well in their second last home game of the season. Tulane QB Nick Montana is currently questionable and on a throw count this week, but early indications last week were that he would be back in time for Tulsa. Even if for some reason Montana can’t go, his replacement Devin Powell led them to victory two weeks ago against Tulsa. Tulane is 5-2 and has a chance to be bowl eligible for the first time since 2002. They will be up for this game against a team they are better than, and I’m getting them as home dogs? Yes, please.