Week 8 sees us entering the meat of the ACC schedule, and it easily provides what is the most appetizing slate of games of the season.  We get a de facto ACC AND National Title elimination game in Death Valley, a top 15 team on the road in a weeknight primetime match-up, and several key match-ups for teams hoping to remain in bowl and ACC Coastal division competition.

You know you’ve struggled at this point in the season with your handicapping if your second best week of the season is the week that you didn’t make any plays!  Overall this season hasn’t been nearly as bad for me as is posted here, but the games I’ve selected for write-ups have been mostly bad plays with some poor luck as well.  There is still a lot of football left, and I remain confident that my handicapping will turn around.  Best of luck this week!

 

YTD 8-15 -21.31 units

NCAAF Week 1	1	3	-4.56
NCAAF Week 2	0	3	-6.66
NCAAF Week 3	4	1	9.34
NCAAF Week 4	0	3	-12.20
NCAAF Week 5	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 6	2	3	-3.63
NCAAF Week 7	1	2	-3.60

Week 8 Plays:

3 units — North Carolina Tar Heels +10 -115

3 units — Maryland — Wake Forest Under 50.5 -110

3 units — Duke — Virginia Over 52 -110

3 units — Tennessee Volunteers +7.5 -110

3 units — Syracuse Orange +7.5 -110

3 units — West Virginia Mountaineers +5 -108

 

Week 8 Plays w/ Write-ups:

3 units — North Carolina Tar Heels +10 -115

Getting 10 points at home with this UNC team in what I think is a pretty fantastic spot (National TV weeknight game off of a bye with their QB returning) is a situation that provides too much value to pass up.  Their isn’t anyway around the fact that at 1-4 the start of the season has been a tremendous disapointment for UNC, but looking at their schedule you can see it was frontloaded (all 4 of their losses are to teams who will be bowling, and 3 of those teams have a legit possiblity at double-digit wins this year).  The back half of the schedule doesn’t look nearly as daunting, in fact I still expect that this UNC team has a strong chance to wind up going bowling this year.

But in order to turn their season around, it starts with a big game at home against a widely hyped and undefeated Miami side.  I’m not 100% sold on this Miami team, aside from the win over Florida (which they were very lucky to win in my opinion) Miami hasn’t beaten anyone that was very impressive or anyone that could really test a defense that has questionable depth.   While North Carolina’s offensive numbers (23.6 ppg, 392 yards per game) indicate some serious regression, you also have to consider that in each of the Heels 4 losses they have faced a top 34-ranked total defense.  While Miami also fits into that group, their schedule has been loaded with poor offenses (no opponents higher than #72 in yards per game vs FBS, no opponents higher than #82 in yards per game vs FBS).  I look for UNC to be able to move the football here against a largely untested Miami defense now that Bryn Renner is healthy and they can open up the offense a bit.

The biggest question for me in this game is how UNC reacts to this Miami offense, if the Heels can limit the big play ability that Miami is known for (Canes are the #7 team in my explosive rankings) then they will force Miami to have to execute on 3rd down, something that the Canes have struggled with this year (96th nationally 3rd down percentage for Miami).  Honestly their isn’t much on paper that points to UNC being able to get consistent stops here, but I’ve found that teams in these kind of situations (off a bye with their backs to the wall in a “save our season” kind of game) tend to bring forth their best defensive effort.  It certainly helps our case that this is Miami’s first game outside the state of Florida this year, and that UNC is coming into this game healthier than they have been in some time.  I just get the feeling that this is the kind of night where Miami struggles defensively, and if UNC can prevent the big play threats from going off they will be in this game all the way.  I’m also on the moneyline here, and I’m willing to put it on the line and call for the shocker.  UNC has struggled this season but talent-wise this is an upper echelon ACC team, and I think they start to play like it in a pivitol game for their season.  North Carolina 31 – Miami 27

3 units — Maryland — Wake Forest Under 50.5 -110

This is another Wake Forest game where I expect that both teams struggle to move the footbal.  Wake will struggle due to their lack of running game (my #116th ranked run game) and their over-reliance on Michael Campanaro’s ability to make plays after the catch vs a team who is pretty strong in preventing big plays (Maryland ranks in my top 30 in defensive big plays and ranks #20th overall in number of 10+ yard plays allowed).  Both of these teams usually don’t put together long drives or play particularly fast (both rank in my bottom 25 for offensive plays per game).

Maryland is pretty solidly the better team but they are working their QB CJ Brown back into the offense after the injury in the FSU game and they may be somewhat limited against what is a pretty solid Wake Forest frontline.  Maryland finds themselves in a tough spot here in Winston Salem against a coach in Jim Grobe who has been an excellent home dog.  I see a tight game where Wake Forest wins the battle up front against my 87th ranked offensive line and forces Maryland into a lot of 3rd and longs.  Both of these offenses have really struggled on 3rd downs (Maryland #98, Wake Forest #102) so I see a game that devolves into a field position battle and is tight the entire way.  Maryland 21, Wake Forest 17

 

3 units — Duke — Virginia Over 52 -110

This game immediately popped onto my radar after what I saw last week, which was a UVA offense who finally found a way to move the ball this year (vs a pretty solid Maryland defense, no less) but whose final score was very misleading as the Wahoos settled for 4 FG’s inside the Red Zone.  I also really liked what I saw out of Duke, they got starting QB Anthony Boone back and he looked very strong and confident in the pocket (albiet against Navy).

Duke had a great defensive game against the Midshipmen, but it’s usually really difficult for defenses to stay strong the week after playing the option offense as all the blocking schemes that are usually employed lead to a lot of soreness and minor injuries (witness the compliants from the UNC defense the week after going against Georgia Tech).  Duke was already banged up defensively and will have a hard time putting quality personnel on the field on some of the longer drives that require more defensive depth.  Virginia doesn’t have a ton of exprienced playmakers in the passing game but they are showing more confidence in David Watford (let him throw 44 times last week) and in branching out offensively from a stagnant running game.

Duke has some decent defensive passing statistics but they are greatly skewed by the fact that they haven’t played very many good passing attacks (GT, Navy & Memphis are all ranked in the 100’s).  The decent passing teams that they have seen (Pittsburgh & Troy) were also the two games where they gave up a bunch of points (55 & 31).  Virginia certianly doesn’t rank very highly in my passing numbers, but I believe it’s a unit that is improving and learning to trust in their young QB.  I see a game with a lot of offense that sees each team finds a way to exploit big plays (Virginia ranks #116 in my defensive big plays metric, meaning they are very suceptible to getting hit for a large play at any time) in what should be a surprisingly entertaining game.  Duke 35, Virginia 34

3 units — Tennessee Volunteers +7.5 -110

I actually made this game a few points shorter (USC -3.5) so their is decent line value here, but were also benefittiing from a pretty good spot with UT here.  We catch South Carolina in the middle of a 3 game road stand (big game at Mizzou next week in prime time) going to a Tennessee team coming off a bye after having a great shot to beat Georgia at Neyland.  I had worried about Tennesee’s psyche this season after the butt-kicking in Oregon (especially a younger team with a new coach), but in watching the Volunteers I see a team who is improving all over the field.

South Carolina looked absolutely dominant last week against a struggling Arkansas team (a team in danger of going in the tank under another first year coach?) so it’s easy to extrapolate that they should do the same to another mid-level SEC team with a first year coach.  But should we?  Arkansas is a team who started the season 3-0 but has lost each of their last 4 games (and first 3 SEC games) by more than the previous game.  They clearly look like a team overmatched in SEC play.  While Tennessee is also winless in SEC play, they have covered the number in both contests and were a little unlucky not to beat a top 10 (though banged up) Georgia team two weeks ago.  The difference here to me is that one team looks like they are improving where another looks like they are stagnant or worse.

Match-up wise, their are a couple off really solid numbers that tip things in the favor of the Volunteers.  They have a top 10 O-line in my statistics, which should greatly help to keep an underachieving yet still uber-talented USC front-line at bay, and should help give them some good push as they look to establish the run.  While Tennessee has struggled big time in the passing game (51.7% completions, 6-8 TD-INT ratio) they are going against my 90th ranked passing defense so they may have some success throwing the ball if they are in comback/backdoor cover mode.  Tennessee is ranked in my top 20 in Special teams as well, and in going against my 102nd ranked USC special teams, their should be some good opportunities to make some big plays in the kicking game.

I’m just not sold on USC to be more than a score road chalk to a decent SEC team that’s played a hard schedule (#5 SOS) and is still showing all the signs of a team with fight in them.  For me this has all the makings of a very tight game, so getting 7.5 with the home team feels like really good value.  South Carolina 28, Tennessee 26

3 units — Syracuse Orange +7.5 -110

I’m a bit wary of a team like Syracuse here travelling a long distance for the second week in a row, but this is a really nice match-up for the Orange.  They come into Atlanta to face a GT team that is reeling following their 3rd straight loss, and how has to find a way to rectify things against a feisty Syracuse team that is playing with confidence and coming off their first ACC win ever.

The biggest issue that I see with Georgia Tech continues to be the play of QB Vad Lee, the first year starter is clearly uncomfortable running the offense at this point and really hesitating to make his read and then react.  Running the GT flex offense requires strong insticts and quick reactions, and his struggles with both of those have led the GT offense into stagnation (5.16 yards per play vs FBS, good for #89 nationally).  The Jackets are a team who counts on being able to consistently move the ball and grind teams down, and if they can’t do that then much of their advantage gained with their scheme is lost.

For the first time I can remember in a game, Georgia Tech does not have the best ground game.  Syracuse comes into this game with my #5 ranked ground game (5.4 ypc w/ 13 TDs in 5 FBS games) and an offense that is built around ball control and protecting a weak passing game.  Georgia Tech has really struggled versus the run at this point in the year, with my #105th ranked defensive line unit (81st nationally against the run in allowing nearly 4.5 ypc).

This looks like a classic ball control match-up with two teams who want to chew up the clock and keep the ball as long as possible.  When assessing their potential to do that, I’ve got to side with the better rushing team who my numbers tell me has the better line play on both fronts (and is getting more than a score).  I’m not going bigger on this game due to how bad Syracuse is at passing the ball if they get behind and the fact that they haven’t seen the option in what feels like a long time, but this looks like a match-up that should be very tight.  If Syracuse can stay focused for their second long road trip in a row, then they have a great chance at going home with a W.  Orange 24, Jackets 17.

3 units — West Virginia Mountaineers +5 -108

Another really good spot back an underdog, we get a WV team coming off a bye going against an undefeated Texas Tech team off of a hard fought victory in a lookahead spot to a big game against Oklahoma next week.  Texas Tech isn’t quite sure who their QB is going to be, and this is arguably the first hostile crowd that the Red Raiders have seen all year (apologies to SMU and Kansas).  This is also the first foray for the Red Raiders into the eastern time zone since 2008, and the noon start time will actually be an 11 AM Central kickoff.

I’m just not impressed with this Texas Tech team, they’ve played a very soft schedule and are coming into this game overrated after some big wins against lower level competition (91st ranked SOS).  My spreadsheet numbers made this game a pick ’em, so I’m happy to take the 5 points with the home team when I think it’s a good spot.  West Virginia 28, Texas Tech 25

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