Good in-game betting starts with good pre-game shopping. Of course it’s always better to get a better number, but when you see a game that you know will move, but you don’t love the hot side, it’s kind of like buying a hollow chocolate bunny. But if you see a game that you know will move, and you think you have some insight into the scoring flow, then your motivation to be at the window Sunday night goes way, way up because that’s how you capture a key number.

Now that said both of the plays I describe below will be buy and holds for me.

USC AT Notre Dame

This game opened -1.5 and is currently at -2.5. The threes will probably be gone by mid-week, but even at that price Notre Dame is a great bargain. They are a veteran team that is getting better. Byes have different effects depending on team makeup, and the Irish look like a team that will benefit from rest and take well to extra scheming.

USC was not impressive after running off to a big rah-rah lead under Coach O. They sped up the offense versus Arizona, and it worked for a while the way doing something your opponent hasn’t seen before often works. But Notre Dame will be prepared for whatever USC can concoct, and they will be smarter, fresher, and way more cohesive. I’ll be surprised if this game isn’t at least -4 by kickoff.

UNLV at Fresno

This game opened at -21, and is now -22.5–and still holds a ton of value. I think we’ll see -24.5’s or better by kickoff. UNLV has won four straight versus an FCS and three of the dregs of the FBS. They’ve made progress, but not enough to compete in chase mode against a defense that will pressure them. Like ND, Fresno is a mature enough team that they figure to benefit from the bye and the early implementation of the game plan. They also have a QB for whom they’re running a Hiesman Campaign, and will let him throw for 400 yards.