Another disapointing week where we win the easy ones (Florida State, Ball State) and lose every game that was close in the 4th quarter (UNC, Army, GT-Miami Under)  2-3 isn’t the end of the world, and sadly its actually an improvement to the winning percentage at this point in the season.   I remain confident that we will start to see some luck in the close games, and as long as my process remains sound things will start to work out like they always do.

I was late getting a thread together this week, and I’ve actually played a ton of games this week (posted on my twitter feed).  I’m not going to write about all of those as many were played at currently unavailable numbers or are the same as some of our fine website’s premium picks.  The ACC card is pretty atrocious this week so the number of plays will be very low.  Good luck!

YTD 7-13 -17.71 U

	Wins	Loses	Units
NCAAF Week 1	1	3	-4.56
NCAAF Week 2	0	3	-6.66
NCAAF Week 3	4	1	9.34
NCAAF Week 4	0	3	-12.20
NCAAF Week 5	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 6	2	3	-3.63

Plays:

3 units — Pittsburgh Panthers +9 -110

3 units — Brigham Young Cougars -6.5 -115

3 units — Clemson / Boston College Over 62 -110

 

 

Plays W/ Write-ups

Clemson / Boston College Over 52 -110

Write-up coming if time permits..

 

3 units — Pittsburgh Panthers +9 -110

Another chance to fade Virginia Tech as more than 1-score chalk at home versus decent opposition.  Last week we were a little unlucky with UNC, they out-gained and out first downed the Hokies getting more than a Touchdown but were done in by 11 costly penalties and a -3 turnover margin (as well as the late loss of their starting QB before the game).  But there is some reason to expect better in fading VT this weekend, we get a Pittsburgh team that is coming into this game well rested out of a bye week and brings in what I have as a little bit of a better defense.  Virginia Tech is missing one of the key ingrediants needed to be a good favorite, they can’t run the ball late in games to seal the deal.  The Hokies rank #114th nationally in yards per carry (2.82) and will struggle to move the ball in the ball consistently if they can’t throw it.  Logan Thomas looks to have settled down a bit after a shaky start to the season, but I’m still not ready to believe in him as a QB who can consistently move the chains without any help.

Pittsburgh’s offense will have their hands full against a stout hokie defense (my #15 ranked defensive unit at this point in the season), but their are some reasons for optimism.  I feel like Tom Savage is a solid game manager (58.7% completions, 9.7 YPA, 10-6 TD-INT) who has the kind of experience to succeed here in front of a hostile crowd.  Pittsburgh doesn’t have a strong running game, but they do have several talented WRs who can spread the field on the Hokies and prevent them from overcommitting up front.  The Panthers have excelled at breaking big plays this year, as they rank #25 nationally in my explosive plays index.

I’m not sold on Pittsburg but I do see value going against Virginia Tech.  The Hokies are 5-1 this season but they have only beaten 1 FBS team by more than this number (and only by 10).  After losing to FSU in the opener, the Panthers have reeled off 4 straight and come into this game rested and confident.  If Pittsburgh plans on contending in the Coastal this season they need to win this game, and I think it’s a tight one for 4 quarters.  Hokies 24, Panthers 21

3 units — Brigham Young Cougars -6.5 -115

I’m backing BYU here to do exactly what they did last year; stymy the GT flex attack and really limit the Jackets ability to move the football.  This year it is a little tougher as the defense isn’t as good as it was last year, but we do have a couple of things working in our favor.  This time its the Jackets who have to travel accross the country,and their motivation this week has to be in question as the step out of league to travel 1,500 miles west to play a team who will be really up for this game.

What excites me here is that I think we get a really strong Cougar front 7 who will be able to get good pressure at the line of scrimmage and force Vad Lee to making quick decisions.  I was excited about Lee as a breakout player for GT this season, but its become apparent to me that he just isn’t ready to be a big time player in this offense.  In particular he’s really struggled grasping the concepts behind the triple option, and that has really limited the ability of Georgia Tech to confuse people offensively.  With their limited offensively approach the Jackets have struggled to hit the big play, ranking 99th nationally in 30+ yard plays after ranking in the top 30 in each of the last 3 years.  While down a notch for me from an elite 2012 unit, the Cougars still rank in the top 30 in several of my important statistical metrics, including big play defense, red zone defense and 3rd down defense.  I feel like the Cougars have an excellent chance to keep GT in obvious passing downs where the Jackets have really struggled (118th nationally in completion percentage on 3rd downs).

This is a BYU offense that struggles at times but has a solid running attack that can move the chains and has a decent match-up here (27th ranked rushing attack vs 77th ranked rushing defense judged by yards per carry).  Taysum Hill showed some reason for optimisim  (17-31 3-1 TD-INT’s) last week against a solid Utah State defense, and if he can come out and not turn the ball over I like the Cougars chances to win the field position battle consistently.  BYU 31, Jackets 20

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