And in the time it took me to write this column Georgia and LSU just scored again….

In our pursuit to improve and evolve as handicappers, we’re constantly looking at new angles, trends, and stats to find that elusive edge which will bring us consistent winners.  Whether it be Excel spreadsheets formulating statistical algorithms, probability models, or data mining for long term trends, handicapping lends itself to high level research in order to beat 52.4% and make a profit.

Betting on the Passing Game

But sometimes it’s really not that difficult.  Anyone who has ever followed football knows that the most important position on the field is Quarterback.  Nowadays, with the emphasis on moving the ball through the air, the most important aspect on defense is stopping the pass.  That’s why the highest paid players on defense in the NFL are pass rushers and cornerbacks.

So knowing how integral the passing game is, I looked at how teams that excel in that area, both passing and stopping the pass, fare against the spread.  In the same vein, I wanted to see how teams that threw the ball poorly, or had problems defending the pass, do against the number.  As simple as it may seem, the results were exactly as you might expect.

Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

Yards Per Pass Attempt

Of all the stats used to determine the effectiveness of a quarterback, yards per pass attempt is the one that I feel measures the quarterback’s efficiency the best.  While completion percentage might seem best to determine how well a quarterback is playing, the goal is to move the ball down the field in as few plays as possible, and yards per pass attempt displays that ability better than any other passing stat.  So I took a look at the teams with the top ten quarterbacks in that category to see how they did ATS and O/U.  And wouldn’t you know, these ten teams combined are 24-10 ATS and a staggering 27-9 O/U..!!  That’s over 70% just blindly playing the teams with the top quarterbacks.  Conversely, by playing the best teams in defending the pass, you would have gone 24-16 ATS and 23-17 to the under, which equates to 60% and 57.5% respectively.

So if you were to “play on” the teams that pass and defend the pass, you would want to “fade” the teams who are poor in these categories.  By simply fading the teams ranked in the bottom ten in offensive pass yards per attempt, you would have gone 19-12 ATS and 23-9 to the under so far this season.  And by doing the same with the worst teams in defending the pass, you would have compiled a 21-12 ATS record and a 23-11 record to the over.

Will this trend continue?

Now of course, hindsight is always 20/20, and it would have been helpful to have that crystal ball to tell you which teams would fall into these categories before the season.  But what can be taken away from this is that most of these teams will remain in these categories, and will probably continue in the same way against the spread.  Focus on the teams who are strong in the pocket when looking to make a play, or to teams weak at the all important quarterback position when looking to fade.

Simple is as simple does!!

T$