As always, feel free to leave a comment or question, and I’ll be happy to answer. You can also find me on Twitter @SmithAdamJ5. Good luck!

Ball State +5.5 @ Virginia

Can the Ball State Cardinals go into UVA and come out with a win? I think so. Ball State is playing some good football right now, and could be catching the Cavaliers at the perfect time. After a 14-3 loss at Pitt last week, the Cavs get Ball State at home, followed by a trip to take on #25 Maryland next week in a nationally televised game. On paper, Virginia’s defense looks solid, holding their last two opponents to under 200 yards each. But, Virginia has really only faced one dynamic offensive team, and that was Oregon, who hung 59 on them. Ball State isn’t Oregon, but the Cardinals are 10^th in the NCAA in passing YPG and have an experienced Senior QB in Keith Wenning, and a solid receiving corps. Ball State is going to find a way to score some points against Virginia, but how does Virginia find a way to score enough to cover basically a touchdown? I don’t know. Throwing out UVA’s game against VMI, they have scored a total of 32 points against BYU, Oregon, and Pitt. It will be interesting to see the line movement on this game. I am tempted to wait it out and see if I can’t get a 6, 6.5, but nonetheless, I like Ball State to get the cover and an outright win.

UTSA @ Marshall -14

Two of the best names in college football, the Roadrunners and Thundering Herd, will square off Saturday at 2 ET. Marshall is coming off two road losses, a 3 point loss at Ohio and an overtime loss in Blacksburg to Virginia Tech. UTSA is coming off a 59-28 home loss to Houston, getting outscored by 28 points in the 4^th quarter. This play is pretty simple for me. Marshall is an explosive offensive team that is going hang a high number on the Roadrunners. UTSA is coming off an emotional loss, and they are hitting the road with two home games on deck. This week is Marshall’s only home game in a 5 game stretch, and they are coming off a bye week after an overtime loss. The Herd will be hungry and will overpower the Roadrunners and get the cover.

North Texas -3 @ Tulane

The Mean Green and the Green Wave will square off in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome at 3:30 on Saturday. North Texas is coming off a bye, with their last game being a 45-21 loss at Georgio. Tulane won at Louisiana-Monroe last week 31-14. One aspect of this game that needs to be looked at is the lack of home-field advantage Tulane has. The Superdome that Tulane plays in on Saturday afternoons is not even remotely close to what you see from the Saints home games. Picture a peewee football team getting to play in a high school stadium and the only people at the game are 30 parents. North Texas has a pretty impressive body of work so far, and I think that merits them being short favorites in a road conference game. North Texas has a strong passing game, ranking 35^th in passing YPG in the NCAA, and Tulane’s Achilles heel has been their secondary. Tulane’s played two offenses with a passing threat, Syracuse and South Alabama, and gave up a combined 93 points in those two games. North Texas is well-coached and coming off a bye, will have a good game plan and come out of the Superdome with a good conference win.

South Alabama +3.5 @ Troy

The Jaguars and Trojans kick off at 1 ET Saturday. South Alabama shortened the life span of thousands of Tennessee fans last week in a 31-24 defeat in Knoxville. This is more of a play on South Alabama than it is a fade on Troy. Normally, you would want to fade a team that comes off a close loss in which they were big dogs the next week, but like Akron a few weeks ago against ULL, last week was a moral victory for the Jaguars. South Alabama only won two games last year, and confidence goes a long with a group like that. Troy lost 38-31 to Duke last week and covered the 11 points, but the game felt a little further apart than the score indicated. Troy has been on the road for three straight weeks, and I think they are going to run into a hungry South Alabama team on Saturday. Simply put, I think South Alabama is the better team and I’ll take the 3.5.

East Carolina -7.5 @ Middle Tennessee State

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. I cannot find any reason to back the Blue Raiders against ECU. The only angle you could really play here is that East Carolina is coming off a big win at North Carolina, but that’s it. ECU’s offense is a well-oiled machine, averaging 295 passing YPG and 37 PPG. This Pirates team is for real, and is going to be favored in their next six games, and will have a legitimate chance at being 9-1 before facing NC State and Marshall to end the year. MTSU is giving up 30 points a game, and they have yet to see an offense with the firepower than ECU will bring to town. If ECU can avoid a hangover from the win over North Carolina, they should cover.