After taking a week off after getting married last week, I return to the grind refreshed and ready to right the ship following an 0-3 day on my last time out.   Overall I haven’t had a lot of luck with my extremely selective approach so I am going to broaden my selection criteria this week and post more of the games that I’ve actually played. Let’s find some winners!

YTD:  5-10 -14.08 units

	Wins	Loses	Units
NCAAF Week 1	1	3	-4.56
NCAAF Week 2	0	3	-6.66
NCAAF Week 3	4	1	+9.34
NCAAF Week 4	0	3	-12.20
NCAAF Week 5	0	0	0.00

Week 6 Card:

3 units — North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5 -108

3 units — Florida State Seminoles -16 -110

3 units — Miami – Georgia Tech Under 55 -105

3 units — Army +11.5 -108

3 units — Ball State +4 -102

 

Week 6 Write-ups:

3 units — North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5 -108

Looking at this game through the prism of “what have you done for me lately” it is very difficult to like UNC here with their awful loss to ECU and VT’s solid win in Atlanta over Georgia Tech, but I see some value on the Heels.  The real issue with Carolina this season is their defense, they are having a really hard time getting consistent stops (ranked 104th in defensive 3rd down %) and have looked flat-out disintested at times.

But the cure for that seems to be going against this VT offense.  Virginia Tech is winning games with their defense which is excellent but they are borderline horrendous when they have the ball.  So far this year VT has played some of last years worst defenses (Marshall & ECU in addition to FCS Western Carolina) and yet only rank 106th nationally in yards per play.  North Carolina is pretty raw defensively but VT doesn’t have much skill position talent at all and their lack of big play ability (108th nationally in 20+ yard plays) means Carolina can use a solid group of atheltes to put 8 guys on the line and dare Thomas to find a way to beat them.  So far he hasn’t been able to do it.

Going against this VT defense is a bit scary, they are very good and extremely physical up front.  Its a UNC offense that looks like it has regressed a bit this season with the loss of a few impact players but I still like their backfield and I believe that Bryn Renner is a pretty solid QB.  Carolina is 1-3 so far this season but they have played a very tough schedule (my 4th ranked SOS) and have been adjusting to new faces all over the field.  Bottom line for me here is that VT too inept offensively to be able to run away from decent teams.  Virginia Tech is 4-1 but is two plays away from being 2-3; these teams are just too even imo go lay more than a score with either.  Last year UNC beat these guys going away, and the Hokies just aren’t improved enough for me to trust them to come into this spot and run away from Carolina.  Hokies 24, Tar Heels 23

3 units — Florida State Seminoles -16 -110

I’m taking a bit of a calculated risk here backing an FSU team that looked more than a little lackadasical defensively last week in Boston going against a rested and confident Maryland team.  The Terrapins have looked really good early on this season but it’s been admittedly against a pretty weak group of teams (84th ranked SOS so far this season) and I feel that they are stepping up big-time in opponent class here.  The Terrapins are a well coached and occasionally explosive team, but don’t have the kind of depth and overall team speed to keep up with a team like Florida State.  What I like about backing FSU here is that their relatively poor effort last week makes them more likely to come out very focused here as they get ready to go into the bye week before the big Clemson showdown.  It also helps that Maryland is 4-0, I feel like there is little chance that FSU overlooks what suddenly looks like a key ACC Atlantic divison game.   This is the kind of game where we seperate the contenders from the pretenders, and I think FSU pours it on here to send a message to Clemson and the rest of the league; were still the champs.  It also bears mentioning that Maryland is leaving the conference after this season, and the last thing the league office wants is the Terps to contend for anything within league play ‘Noles 45 – Terps 17.

3 units — Miami – Georgia Tech Under 55 -105

The fact that both of these teams have traditionally been pretty explosive is keeping this total a little higher than it probably should be, when I look at this game I see a defensive match-up.  I see a GT team with a QB who is struggling to run the triple-option aspect of the flex, and it’s really limited their offensive explosivity.  I see a Miami defense that is loaded with speed and has done really well playing assignment football so far this season.  And I see a Georgia Tech defense that has really impressed me to start the season with their ability to prevent giving up the big play (a major issue from last season) going against a Miami offense that doesn’t hit the big play as often as people seem to think.  My numbers actually made this total around 44, so I feel like we are getting really good value at the very key total number of 55.  Canes 24 Jackets 20

3 units — Army +11.5 -108

This play is mainly a fade of BC, I just don’t have nearly enough faith in them to think they should be laying DD against most FBS schools.  While Army isn’t a particularly strong team, they do play a style of football that should have success moving the ball agianst an undersized BC front line.  In particular it’s really tough for schools like BC who aren’t particularly strong or deep defensively to consistently get stops against this option offense.  The Eagles got a little beat up defensively last week, and thats usually a bad sign against an offense that really tries to grind you down.  Boston should be able to move the ball decently here, but they won’t ever be able to get this Army attack off the field.  BC 28, Army 21

3 units — Ball State +4 -102

I’ve got UVA on my autofade list, I feel like this is a team who is a bit rudderless and really struggling to find things that are working for them.  They are a run-first team who just can’t run the ball.  They are going up against a Ball State team who is very balanced and very dangerous offensively and will have success moving the ball against a UVA defense that isn’t very good but has benefitted from a schedule thats only included one good offensive team (I think BYU is solid offensively, but that game was played in a monsoon).  I love games where the more dynamic offense is getting points, and here I feel like Ball State may actually be the better team.  Ball State 31, Virginia 20

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