Kentucky Football

Okay, I’m taking the bait on this one.  Something has got to give with the struggling Wildcats.  They played fairly decent against Louisville and Bridgewater’s high scoring offense, but failed to secure the ball in key situations.

This week they are coming off a bye and I believe coach Stoops will have his team’s full attention and effort.  Here are a few more reasons to like the Wildcats on Saturday:

-Wildcats coming off a HOME loss to Louisville
-Wildcats coming off a bye.
-Kentucky got shut out last year by the Gators
-With Gators top QB out for the year, the starting Junior QB will make his first official start.

There really isn’t much to say about this pick, except it is a complete contrarian play and is a classic “reverse line movement” scenario.

For those of you who did not read my article 2 months ago, about “reverse line movement”, here’s a quick definition:  Betting line movement that contradicts the public percentage.  Here’s what the Kentucky vs. Florida game looks like:

[box] Florida has 76% of betting wages and Kentucky has 24%, but Kentucky’s odds go from -14 to -12.5. So we now have a reverse-line movement situation. [/box]

Consider: Kentucky +12.5 

Forty Six & 2

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Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.

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