Colorado at Oregon State

Colorado goes to Oregon State for a game that promises to be another high-scoring shootout. Colorado seems to have a very promising QB-receiver tandem, and Oregon State’s Sean Mannion is exactly the kind of QB beloved by in-game bettors. Early on his OC will play call as conservatively as he can get away with, but as the game progresses the Beaver dam starts to crack, all hell breaks out, and more and more has to be put on Mannion’s shoulders and he shines.

I find this one a little hard to set my windows on. It doesn’t look like a good spot for Oregon State off two plus-graded away wins. If there were no in-running wagering I’d probably take Colorado and the points (at kickoff), although they have been off two weeks (bye plus the Fresno game that was canceled) and could be out of sync for a quarter or fade in the end. But my stronger conviction is that there will be back and fourth so I’m going to hold off on my straight wager and look for an Oregon State -3 and a Colorado +14.

Oklahoma at Notre Dame

My unit for straight and second half wagers is two percent, but for in-game wagers, where my edge is demonstrably higher and where most of my wagers will be a wash, I bet three percent. A few times a year, though, and this would be on less than two percent of the 800 or so wagers I’ll make by year’s end, I respond to the hour between dog and wolf, and allow myself to get a little crazy. But, I use in-game wagering to do it in a structured way.

I really like Oklahoma laying the three over Notre Dame, and would like to bet my lungs on it. But instead I’m going to bet five percent of my bankroll. And then, if in the first half I can get a Notre Dame +8, I’ll buy back three percent of my wager. If I can’t get Notre Dame +8 in the 1H, I’ll swallow the juice on a three percent buy back at ND +3 or better at the first 2H opportunity. If Oklahoma doesn’t throw the first and second punch, and Notre Dame gets a break or two and keeps it close, I’ll be on my knees in front of the TV with the sound turned off praying and feeling like an idiot for going off the reservation.

I guess I should mention the handicapping points that put me on the Sooners. Off a bye and off last year’s 13-30 bashing (as -12.5 favorites) it’s hard to imagine a team that will be more focused than the Sooners. I’m not thrilled about backing a QB making his road debut as a starter, but he’s seasoned enough I don’t think the moment will be too big for him. Oklahoma seems to have an extra-athletic front line, although they are unproven and I’m taking a lead projecting that their performances against inferior competition will translate here. It’s not as good a line as Michigan State’s, but it’s going to be more explosive and can be pointed at what DC’s are surely coming to see more and more clearly as Tommy Rees predictable limitations.

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has the look of a name brand team that is less than the sum of its parts. I’m not sure why that would be, but by my grading they’ve played three poor games in a row. That leads me to take a they-are-what-they-are stance and lower their power rating to the point where they seem outmatched here.

I would get this one early because I believe we’ll see -4.5’s by kickoff.