College Football Season Win Totals: Oregon
Ever wondered how a bookmaker sets college football season win totals? Recently I read a very good article called Creating a Win Total by Todd Fuhrman, the Race and Sports Analyst at Ceasars Palace in Las Vegas. In the article Todd describes how he goes about setting college football season win totals.
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6 thoughts on “College Football Season Win Totals: Oregon”
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Tim…In any other year I’m thinking 5Dimes would have gone ahead and set USC’s win total at 10.5. But I suspect they are hedging their bets a little in this case with the lower total because USC is so thin at some key positions. The Trojans starting 22 probably has the most talent in the league. But if they start to incur some injuries along the way, the over for that 9.5 win total may not look so good in November as it does right now in April. Because of that reason alone, I think paying the -260 juice isn’t a good bet. 5Dimes isn’t dumb. I’m betting this is exactly what is going through their heads with this team. There’s nothing worse than playing undermanned and injured with a lot of hype and a big fat target on your back. The Sooners can tell all about it after their injury plagued 2011 season after being the fave to win the conference.
GS, -260 juice is ridiculous. With juice that high at over 9.5 the bookmakers seem to be saying that they think USC will go 10-2 if everything falls into place for them, but one slip up to an inferior team (like last year at ASU) and everyone who paid that heavy juice is screwed.
If anything I would be tempted to give the under +180 a shot because as we have discussed on several occasions the Trojans do not have a lot of margin for error with their depth issues.