Did you hear the joke about how it’s easier to score on a college football field than it is in a strip club with a fist full of $20’s..??

Thank you, thank you…I’ll be here all year-don’t forget to tip your waitress!!

Over, over, over 

As I’m watching Michigan and Notre Dame march up and down the field last Saturday night, I realized that I had just finished watching a game (UGA/South Carolina) where both teams were marching up and down the field as well.  And as I’m watching Michigan and Notre Dame, I’m noticing the scores scrolling by on the bottom of my TV screen, and it seemed like every one had a score that looked like halftime of a Knicks/Heat game from the late ‘90s…!!  For a “totals” player like myself, the eyes and ears perk up when you see all the games going in a certain direction.

When I finally got to tally up the numbers, I realized that my eyes did not deceive me.  Of the 40 games between FBS opponents, 25 of them (62.5%) had at least one team score 40 points or more.  Now I don’t know about you kids out there, but I’m from a time when scoring 40 points was extraordinary, not ordinary!  Of those 25 teams, 15 of them came within one score of going over the game total, while Baylor said “who needs any help, we’ll just go over a 69 total all by ourselves”..!!  LSU, who’s total was the highest it’s been since at least 1999, eclipsed it easily…in the 3^rd quarter!!

In the 8 prior years with Les Miles as head coach, which spanned 101 FBS games, 60+ points were scored in LSU games only 18 times, or about once every six games, which works out to nearly twice a year.  So far this season, they’re 2 for 2, as both games they’ve played have scored in the 60’s (64 wk 1 vs TCU/73 wk 2 vs UAB).

Or take the case of Northwestern, who has scored 40+ in back-to-back games vs AQ conference teams (Cal/Syracuse) for the first time since 2000..!!  Northwestern has also gained 500+ yards in both games, a worthwhile feat and something to take notice of as their most explosive offensive player has barely played.   We’re not talking Oregon or Oklahoma State here…we’re talking LSU and Northwestern!!

Northwestern QB Kain Colter (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

The “under” will have its day? 

As most of you are probably wagering on Top 25 teams, it’s worth noting that those games went 9-5 O/U vs the closing spread last weekend.  Also worth noting is that totals listed at 55 or higher were 14-10 O/U, which is a profitable 58%.  But another consequence of high scoring games is its effect on covering the spread.  As “under” is correlated with the “dog”, “over” is correlated with the “favorite”.  The philosophy is that the lower the score, the tighter the spread, or the difference, between the two teams scores.  The higher the score, the wider the spread between the two teams scores.  And as you would expect, this played out in Week 2, as favorites of -14 or more were 16-8 ATS, as teams piling up the score had no problem covering the big number on the side.

So what can you do as a handicapper to take advantage of this increase in scoring?  Well, there are two things that I suggest, and one that I recommend.  First, you can just jump on the bandwagon and start betting the “over” as often as you can.  While I’m not someone who usually just blindly starts following a trend, it is early enough in the season where you still might be “ahead of the curve”, and this run could continue for a few more weeks.

Secondly, you can wait for the oddsmakers to adjust enough on the total where the value now lies on betting the “under”, as lines move up by 5-10 points more than where they were in the beginning of the season.  I’m more of an “under” player anyway, so I tend to do this regardless of any changes in scoring.

Ultimately, this kind of thought process is what you should be doing with all of your wagers throughout the season, whether it be sides or totals.  Always look for where the pendulum has swung too far in one direction, and ride it the other way.

Lastly, and what I recommend, is for you to start to single out a few teams that could be good “over” teams, wait for the right matchup or a “soft line”, and pounce on the total.  For example, Northwestern and Georgia have both played two AQ conference teams, and both games have scored in the 70’s.  Thus there’s a penchant for their offenses to score and their defenses to give up scores.  Wait patiently for an opportunity, either when they’re playing a top offensive team, a team that plays a “hurry-up” tempo, or a “total” that’s lined in the mid-to-high 50’s, and look to take the “over”.  Even if it means only making three or four bets on that team all season long, if it translates into 3-1 or even 4-0, it’s well worth the wait.  Very rarely will you have a team go 12-0 to the “over”, so picking your spots is key and the way I recommend playing this uptick in scoring.

I will be atoning for my sins this Saturday (Yom Kippur), of which I have plenty, so no plays from me this weekend.  Wishing you a “green” weekend.

T$