Western Kentucky +13.5 @ Tennessee

Western Kentucky had about as solid of a start in the Petrino era as possible with a 35-26 win over Kentucky. Western controlled this game from start to finish, and it really wasn’t as close as the score looks. Kentucky is bad, but this was more indicative of WKU’s talent level. The Vols basically had a bye last week against Austin Peay, so we can’t really get a read on UT. With a trip to Oregon and Florida on deck for Tennessee, Western could catch the Vols at the perfect time. I’m not in any hurry to get to the window backing a UT team laying nearly two TD’s to a hungry Western Kentucky team oozing with confidence, with two of their toughest three games up next especially with a noon ET kickoff.

Bowling Green -6.5 @ KentState

BGSU had one of the more impressive performances in week one beating Tulsa 34-7. The Falcons got it going offensively when QB Matt Johnson replaced Matt Shilz. Although Johnson helped BGSU pull of an impressive win, he was just 11 of 23 passing for 151 yards with an interception. KentState barely got past Liberty last week, but played without their electrifying star Dri Archer. Archer will be back this week and he is most assuredly a game changer. BGSU might be getting too much respect after thumping Tulsa, and is 7.5 point chalk on the road against a team they lost to at home last year. It’s hard for me to see any value on Bowling Green in this situation, especially with their lack of offensive firepower. The total sits at 44.5 and with both schools yet to hit a stride offensively, KentState seems like the only way to go in this one.

Buffalo +27.5 @ Baylor

After covering a lofty number of 34-36 (depending on when you got it) Buffalo makes a trip out to Waco to face an offensive juggernaut in Baylor. I was a Buffalo backer last week, and it pains me to say, but Buffalo was fortunate to get a cover. If you take away the pick-6 by Mack and Braxton Miller’s early departure, OhioState probably hangs 50+ on the Bulls. It doesn’t get any easier for Buffalo as they head to Waco to face a Baylor team that barely broke a sweat in a 69-3 route of Wofford. Buffalo gave up 261 yards rushing to OSU and Baylor had four players rush for a TD last week against Wofford. Lache Seastrunk and the Baylor offense should have a field day. The total sits at 66.5 and Baylor could get close to that themselves.

South Alabama +6.5 @ Tulane

South Alabama is coming off a 22-21 loss at home to Southern Utah to open the year. South Alabama is coming off a two win season, both occurring at home. On the road last year, the Jaguars closest loss was 7 points to ArkansasState. South Alabama’s road losses last year were by 24, 20, 7, 14, 10, 22, and 16. Tulane has 16 returning starters this year, and also gets back 5 players from suspension, including their second leading tackler from last year. I would have pegged the Green Wave as much bigger favorites than this. I see a lot of value laying the points with Tulane.

Florida Atlantic +20.5 at East Carolina

FAU is coming off a 34-6 loss to Miami. It simply wasn’t the Owls night in Miami, pathetically even spiking the ball on a 4^th down attempt. Although FAU covered the lofty 32 point spread, my feelings are that it was more as a result of Miami letting their foot off the gas than anything FAU did. Miami was able to tally a robust 303 yards rushing and 503 yards of total offense on the FAU defense, running a pretty vanilla offensive plan with Florida on deck for the Canes. East Carolina hung 52 on Old Dominion, putting up 447 yards through the air. The Pirates also converted 12 of 17 third downs. East Carolina returns 9 starters on both sides of the ball, and will be able to hang plenty on FAU. The Owls averaged just 3.7 yards per completion against Miami, and really lack the ability to stretch the field vertically. I like East Carolina laying the points.