Weekly Three Pack

Rivalries Renewed, Retired & Seeking Revenge 

 

 

Florida @ Miami

The Gators and ‘Canes clash this week in the SEC’s premier non-conference matchup in South Florida. The Hurricanes hold the 28-26 edge in the history of the series. These teams have not met since 2008, when the Gators won handily 26-3.

Line:  Gators -3 O/U 49

Trends to Watch:

Road Warriors: The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

September Scoring: The ‘Canes last 5 September games have gone over the total.

Stop the Run:

Florida needs to find a way to contain Miami RB Duke Johnson. The Hurricanes’ feature back will continue to be the focus of Miami’s offense. Johnson blew up on the FAU Owls last weekend; compiling 186 yards, but that is FAU and not the Florida Gators. The Gators play like an AFC North team, pounding on teams in the trenches until teams just give up or wear down. In order for Miami to succeed on Saturday, they will need to get creative and find other ways to produce points. In other words, QB Stephen Morris and the ‘Canes defense need to make some plays. Watching both these teams last weekend left us empty inside, desiring more. The offense’s looked boring and caused my eyes to shut occasionally. Even though the coaching staffs refuse to admit it; much of that can be attributed to vanilla offenses as neither team wanted to show their hand.

All hands on deck:

Florida gets suspended players in CB Loucheiz Purifoy, LB Antonio Morrison and DT Darious Cummings back as well as RB Matt Jones from a preseason illness. All five of these are impact players and should play major roles Saturday. The player most likely affected is Matt Jones, who lost a substantial amount of weight because of the illness. It will be interesting to see how much the Gators employ him.

What to expect:

Miami struggled to get in sync offensively against FAU, and that is not likely to change come Saturday. Additionally, Miami’s defensive line is a poor matchup against an elite offensive front that the Gators sport. There is no reason to expect the Gators to open it up early in this contest. The ‘Canes will be more than ready to play in this one, but once the adrenaline wears off, and the game progresses toward the second half – the Florida defense and offensive line will simply be too much for the Hurricanes. A blowout is likely out of the question, but the Gators should win this game by more than a field goal.

Prediction: Florida 30 Miami 20

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Notre Dame @ Michigan

One more time between the Irish and Wolverines before the teams hang it up for the foreseeable future. Michigan leads the all-time series 23-16-1. Notre Dame’s last win at Michigan came in 2005, pulling out a 17-10 victory as 8 point underdogs.

Line: Michigan -4 O/U 51.5

Trends to Watch:

Home Cooking: Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 contests.

Don’t Call Me Dog, Dog: Underdog is 4-1 ATS in last 5 contests.

Big House of Horror: Irish are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings at Michigan.

I’m kind of a big deal?:

Brian Kelly made it abundantly clear what he thinks about the Notre Dame/Michigan rivalry, calling it “not a big deal” in the grand scheme of things. Someone forgot to tell Brady Hoke that was the case, as he joyfully called the Irish cowards for putting an end to the series. This is sure to spark some additional interest in watching the game on Saturday night.

Old is new:

The Notre Dame offense has some experience returning from last year’s BCS title run, but the change from Everett Golson back to Tommy Rees leaves a much to be desired when assessing this matchup.  The Irish also lost their top two rushers in Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood.  All that aside, the biggest loss is certainly at tight end, where the Irish will have to make up for the loss of all-planet Tight End, Tyler Eifert.  The offense is quite frankly boring to watch and even though the team had little issues disposing of an outclassed Temple squad a week ago we will surely see the effects of those changes against Michigan.

The Wolverines defense has officially erased the label many considered soft by Big Ten standards. The team vastly improved against the run a season ago, and we can expect that trend to continue so long as Hoke is calling the shots in Ann Arbor.  The biggest question that remains for the Michigan defense is a reliable pass rush. For the Wolverines to be successful on Saturday, they will need to generate more pass rush. If they can get to Rees and keep him under duress, I expect the Wolverines to come out victorious.

Future First Rounders:

Notre Dame’s equalizer is on the defense front, as the team employs two future first round talents. DE Stephen Tuitt and tackle Louis Nix are two of the most impressive specimens in college football. If the Wolverines can control the line of scrimmage and negate Notre Dame’s greatest advantage, it could be a long evening for Coach Kelly and the Irish. Despite losing Manti Te’o, the Irish return eight starters from the last season’s team that shut down the Michigan spread offense.

This year should be different for the Wolverines as the team has ditched the Denard Robinson offense and gone back to a more traditional run-focused, pro-style approach. This means we can expect the running game of Fitzgerald Toussaint and others to be the focal point of the Michigan game-plan on Saturday. Devin Gardner has the athletic ability to create plays on his own, much like Robinson, but I would not expect the quarterback draws and scrambles to be nearly as prevalent.

What to expect:

Offensively, the Wolverines will be tested against this experienced and talented Irish defense.  If they can move the ball effectively throughout the game against the Irish – they win the game fairly easily.  Call me skeptical, but I don’ think that will be the case.  Where I can see Michigan winning this game will be on defense.  If the Wolverines harass Tommy Rees, keep him uncomfortable and continue to play superior run defense, Michigan will come out on top.  It is probably a good thing that recent match-ups between these two programs at the Big House have been shootouts.  The days of these teams being more offensively oriented have come and gone. The value in this game lies on the under.  I see a defensive struggle for most of the evening with the team making the fewest mistakes coming out on top.

Prediction: Notre Dame 14 Michigan 21

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South Carolina @ Georgia

The Gamecocks and Bulldogs meet for the 66th time on Saturday with huge SEC East implications at stake. The Bulldogs lead the series against South Carolina convincingly 46-17-2.  However, the Gamecocks are attempting to win their 4th straight meeting. The Bulldogs are out for revenge following last year’s 35-7 beat-down at the hands of South Carolina.

Line: Georgia -3 O/U 56

Trends to Watch:

Cocky Covers: The Gamecocks are 5-0-1 ATS vs Georgia in last 6  contests.

Defense Dominates: The Under is 11-2 ATS in last 13 contests.

Spurrier’s Record vs Georgia: The old ball coach is 14-5 against the Bulldogs.

Palmetto Pain:

The Georgia Bulldogs enter Saturday’s contest without a win this decade against the Palmetto states major institutions. A trend that is gnawing at Coach Richt and the Bulldogs brain trust. All is not lost for the Bulldogs – in fact, all their goals remain ahead of them if they can just get over the hump and pick a win this weekend against the Gamecocks. Failure to do so will get the fan base in even more of an uproar as the fan base will begin calling for an end to Richt’s reign (again).

Pound the rock:

With two of college football’s elite running backs, the Bulldogs would be wise to run the ball often to test out the young Gamecock defense.  Although the Gamecocks have plenty of experience on the front four and at corner, they are very green at linebacker and to a degree, safety. The Tar Heels failed to do much scoring against South Carolina, but they did average 4.6 yards a carry from their two leading backs. The same can be said for the Gamecocks, who will look to exploit a defense that allowed nearly 500 yards of total offense last week in the road loss to Clemson. Despite the loss of Andre Ellington, the Tigers amassed 197 yards on the ground against the young Bulldogs defense.

The Wild Card:

No, it is not Jadeveon Clowney.  The wild card is Dylan Thompson – South Carolina’s “backup” Quarterback, who ignites the Gamecocks offense every time he enters the game.  Last week, Thompson came in for one play and threw a touchdown pass to a scout team player. This is nothing new for Thompson, as he commanding the Gamecocks back to victory of the Wolverines in the Outback bowl and beat Clemson the week prior. To what effect Spurrier and the coaching staff employs Thompson could create the difference this contest.  It is hard enough to game plan for one offense, but for two?

What to expect:

The popular talking point all week seems to be how the Bulldogs cannot beat South Carolina this week after such a deflating loss to open the season. No time to prepare, the Gamecocks are more rested and so forth. I do not see motivation or lack of preparedness being a problem. Georgia knows the Gamecocks all too well, and they will more than ready to avenge last year’s embarrassing loss.  The biggest concern for Georgia in this game comes down to the inexperience of Georgia’s defense against a tactician like Spurrier with so many offensive options at his disposal. The Georgia running game will rack up yards against the Gamecocks, but I think Georgia is a one-trick pony in this game. I predict the Gamecocks will sell out on the run and force Aaron Murray to beat them. The game means everything to both teams and I think South Carolina is simply the more complete outfit in this one. Backing the Gamecocks is the way to go, and sprinkle a little bit on the money line as well.

Prediction: South Carolina 31 Georgia 27

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David Pierce is a sports handicapper at Stathappens and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow David on Twitter throughout the college football season @LasVegasCapper.

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