My heart goes out to Vanderbilt backers…

The thrills and chills of college football were everywhere this past weekend, but none more so than in Nashville, TN where the football was so exciting, it not only gave viewers butterflies in their stomachs, it actually made the players puke as well!!  But if you’re a Vandy backer and you score the go-ahead TD with 1:30 left after completing a no-chance-we-convert 4^th and 18, all the while getting +3.5, you’re feeling that life is pretty good…until Jeff Scott rips your heart out with a 75 yd TD run that started out as a simple 8yd gain!  But wait…there’s more, as you drive down the field, only to have a pass go through the hands of your best player and into the arms of an Ole Miss defender, ending your night half a point short.

But how many were thinking about the ramifications of Hugh Freeze going for two down 28-23 at the end of the 3^rd qtr?  It’s actually the right call, although many coaches wouldn’t do it, as it puts you in a position where you’ll be down by 8 if you don’t convert and Vandy kicks a fg.  That decision made the final score 39-35 (how many times do you see a team score 39 points..??!!), resulting in a 4 point win, rather than a 3 point win, and even bigger, the difference between a “cover” for the dog rather than a “bad beat” for Vandy backers (thankfully, of which I was not one of them..!!)

Follow the $$

I always find it interesting to see if the line moves give a hint as to what side to be on…or is it just a matter of a living, breathing market, constantly moving up and down, waiting to find buyers at the right prices.  With Ohio St/Buffalo, the line started the week at 36.5, and continually moved down a full FG until it reached 33.5.  That move proved “smart”, as UB covered by two touchdowns.

But with Tulsa/BG, money came in at 4.5 for the dog, driving it all the way through the seemingly impenetrable “3” to close at 2.5, a sure sign of smart money taking Tulsa.  Books left themselves exposed on both sides of “3”, but obviously respected the money coming in on the dog enough to deal with the possible implications of getting “middled.”  That money didn’t look too smart once the ball kicked off, as Tulsa never competed, giving BG backers an easy cover, and letting the books off the hook.

It’s not a Score….Until you Score!!

You’ve got o60 on Wash St/Auburn, and watch with joy as the two teams rack up 46 points by halftime.  But as both teams start settling for FGs, the thought crosses through your mind that maybe you shouldn’t have counted your money at the half.  But then here comes Wazzu, down 31-24, driving down the field in the 4^th qtr for the tying score, with a 1^st and Goal from the 8yd line.  You’ll laugh about it later when this game goes into OT and the final score soars over the total, you keep telling yourself.  And then…the dreaded INT in the end zone, the worst possible thing any “over” player can think of..!!  A 9 point second half is all these two teams can muster, and you sit and wonder who the lucky MFer was who took the under..!!

Too Much Respect

Bowling Green won convincingly in their home opener, as sophomore QB Matt Johnson took over for the always underwhelming senior Matt Shilz, and gave the Falcons the spark they needed to cover easily.  Now they go on the road as favorites of more than a TD vs divison rival Kent St, who should be getting All-Everything RB Dri Archer back for the game.  And while Kent St brings in a new coach and QB, they won outright at Bowling Green last year (+2.5), and that spread would indicate a -3.5 if the game was played in Kent.  Has the gap between these two teams really grown 11 points from last November to this September..??  Or is the “recency” factor in effect here with BG’s performance last week, while Kent St struggled with their new faces..??  The Golden Flashes look like a “live” dog to this observer…

Not Enough Respect

Wazzu went to the plains of Alabama, put up over 450 yards of offense, and held a Gus Malzahn offense to 4-14 on 3^rd down conversions as more than a two TD dog.  Losing the turnover battle (3-1) kept the Cougars from pulling the upset, but it seemed pretty obvious that this is not the same squad that was lost on both sides of the ball at the beginning of last year.  While no one’s paying attention, Wazzu has covered 3 of their last 4 dating back to last year.

Meanwhile, USC, which has failed to cover in 6 of their last 7, brought their over rated outfit to the beautiful island of Hawaii, where they averaged less than 5 yards per play.  Hawaii is known for a lot of things, such as their beautiful beaches, delicious pineapple, and their tasty buds (Maui Wowee, Kona Gold..!!).  But they’ve never been known for their top notch defense, yet USC was held out of the endzone for the first 25 minutes of the contest..!!  Now Wazzu is getting more than two TDs again, this time to a team that only scored two offensive TDs last week.  Things that make you go ‘hmmm”…

Surprise/Fade Teams

Last week I highlighted three teams in each category to keep an eye on throughout the season.  The “Surprise” category only had one lined matchup, as Minnesota came through with the cover, while the “Fade” teams struggled, with Nebraska barely escaping as 31 pt favs and Iowa St losing outright to FCS Norther Iowa.  Overall, 2-1 ATS, and I’ll take that every week!!

Trickiest week of the year…don’t put too much stock into last week’s results, for the good or the bad.

T$

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