In this series of weekly articles I’m going to outline my approach to in game wagering by considering particular contests. In the course of describing the projected scenarios on which I base these plays, I’ll be  explaining some of the interpretive principles that guide my thinking.

Another goal in writing this series is to encourage disagreement so as to learn from handicappers with other views. If you see a game flow going differently than I do, I’d welcome your reasoning in the comments section. (As long as you put it there before kickoff.)

I have different goals when planning my bet strategies for different games, but for these writeups I’m going to focus on taking a lead to catch a middle. Choosing games where I think I have some insight into the game flow I’ll be illustrating the formation and execution of an ingame plan.

In Game Week One Plan

Take Alabama at -18.5 pregame, and take back Virginia Tech should +24 become available in the first half. If +24 never materializes, get off the bet at any middle price (i.e. Virginia > +18.5) available after Alabama’s first second half drive.

In Game Handicapping Logic

When 5Dimes opened this game for its high juice mini-limits they made it Alabama -22. They knew that Alabama would be the most public of all teams, and they only wanted to have to adjust downward. As the most basic college football basic strategy is to go against public teams, I thought that Virginia Tech and there maligned senior quarterback would be a tough out on a neutral field.

Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas (Douglas Jones-USA TODAY Sports)

As events have unfolded, however, Virginia Tech lost a couple of starting offensive lineman and running backs. Against most of their schedule I’d assume the backups would hold their own, but against Alabama the new guys are going to have to work through some jitters. In past situations Coach Saban has game-planned a little more aggressively against teams that might need to get their legs under them, and I am looking for a big play or turnover early that might help the Tide get off to the two score lead that will create the take-back number I’m looking for.

This is also the year that Coach Saban says he will, and has every reason to, take the wraps off senior A. J. McCarron. In the past he could be given the role of game-manager, but this year he’ll have to make some more plays as a matter of course. So, from a quarterback development standpoint, I expect McCarron to be given multiple chances to create big plays early in the game.

If Alabama does run off a bit early, I don’t see a one-way blowout. Without delving into particular matchups Virginia Tech doesn’t suck and Alabama isn’t yet the well-oiled machine they’ll be once their talented new starters get seasoned. Also, the game is on a neutral field which will tend to favor the team that keeps on trying over the young one that may start to look ahead to a showdown game in a couple of weeks once this one’s in hand.

Disciplined, scenario-based betting is hard because most of the time you lose even when you win. It’s hard to watch a game unfold about like you thought, get the middle, and then have it not come in. It’s hard, but it’s absolutely necessary. If Alabama doesn’t surge early or at least win the 1H turnover battle then I was wrong, and yet I still might have a chance to surrender my bet for a tenth of a unit or less. If I don’t take that chance I’m not betting my handicap.

Let’s consider a wins-and-losses view of what it takes to be successful as an ingame bettor. If I hit one middle in every ten attempts, have one game get away from me, and lose the juice on the other eight, I’m still a winner. But to achieve those results, I have to follow my plan and remember that my opinion is about the game flow, not the final margin.