PAC Football – 2013′s Most Improved & Overrated Teams
Yesterday we took a look at some of the possible PAC 12 breakout players for 2013. Today we continue with our PAC 12 Football Q & A sessions by taking a look at some of the teams that could show the most improvement over last season, and which teams may be overrated.
We are again joined by our panel of PAC 12 football experts, including Brad Denny of House of Sparky, Scott Chong of California Golden Blogs and AHMB of Bruins Nation.
[box] Question # 3: Which team do you believe will show the greatest improvement over last season? Which team is overrated (not nearly as good as they are being made out to be)?[/box]Brad Denny – House of Sparky: I think Washington State is primed to exceed their meager expectations this fall. Now that he’s had a full year to get his system and players in place, I think they can avoid the North basement and have a chance at a lower-tier bowl bid.
As mentioned earlier, I believe USC is being overrated by the oddsmakers this year. They are capable of living up to those expectations, but the inexperience at some key spots, plus the roller coaster ride that is Lane Kiffin’s tenure, keeps them limited to the No. 3 spot in the South.
Scott Chong – California Golden Blogs: If you’ll indulge me for blatant homerism, I think that Cal going 3-9 last year has left themselves plenty of room for a huge turnaround this year. The final record might not be the best benchmark for improvement because the schedule is brutal and we’ll likely have a freshman QB working behind an Oline with three new starters.
But in terms of competitiveness and playing good football, I’d think that Cal has a leg up over teams like Utah, WSU, and Colorado. Former Coach Jeff Tedford recruited talented players; he just didn’t get the most out of them. Usually, installing new schemes on both sides of the ball can be a step back. In this case, Coach Sonny Dykes is putting in a simplified playbook with an emphasis on fundamentals, execution, and playing fast. Although depth remains a concern, there’s a lot to like about this team’s potential.
As mentioned before, I think that USC is the most likely team to underachieve. Despite having Marquise Lee, it’ll be a new and inexperienced QB under center. Like many Cal fans, I’m a bit skeptical of the Clancy Pendergast hire as their new DC. He likes to throw a ton of different looks, most of them very aggressive. When it works, it can very effective. When it doesn’t, it re-defines the BOOM in “boom and bust.” It takes high football IQ players and great athletes to make it work. We know ‘SC has the athletes…and I’ll leave it at that.
And last, Lane Kiffin is a thoroughly uninspiring and dislikable as their head coach. Whether you want to call it being on the hot-seat or an unofficial lame-duck, I doubt that he’s got it in him to rally the troops when they face adversity.
AHMB – Bruins Nation: I’ll go with two obvious choices. Colorado will show the greatest improvement simply due to the fact that they have nowhere to go but up, and USC simply doesn’t deserve the preseason hype (again). Hiring Mike McIntyre was a great choice and hopefully he’s the guy that finally turns Colorado around. USC is still limited in scholarships, doesn’t have a quarterback, and is very thin on the offensive line. I just don’t see how they could be favored to win the South.
Get a copy of our 2012 PAC 12 Betting Prospectus here.
11 thoughts on “PAC Football – 2013′s Most Improved & Overrated Teams”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I agree with Cal…plenty of talent on that roster
You been reading our PAC 12 Betting Prospectus? HA!
Was doing some prep for my NW/Cal game and saw some reasons for optimism…once they get things figured out with their new system they have the talent to make some noise
A lot of your readers, especially the ones just learning to cap games, would probably like to know how you define, “plenty of talent on the roster.” We say that a lot in write-ups and summing up teams, but I’m not sure that everybody understands what the standards are for “talent.”
First off, my view of their talent is relative to other teams with losing records…i certainly don’t expect them to compete on a talent level with Alabama or FSU
I initially look at recruiting rankings to get a feel for a team’s talent level…scouts are human, and they do make mistakes, as not all 4*/5* kids pan out…but over all, if you rank high in recruiting you should have more talent than most teams
Cal’s recruiting rankings from 2010-2012 (players who should be contributors this season) are as follows:
ESPN: 15/18/22 with 24 4* recruits
Rivals: 11/17/23 with 24 4* and 2 5*
Phil Steele: 14/14/21
Those are 3 top 25 rankings in the last 3 years…that would be considered a “talented” roster…if you consider the 7 4* from this class, they have around 25-30 4* recruits on their roster, so they could conceivably fill out their starting 22 with all 4* recruits…not a lot of teams can say that
Then I look at the production from players who have been given some playing time on their roster…for instance, as a soph TE Rogers, who is 6’4″ 275lbs and didn’t catch a pass his freshman season, led the team in ypr @ 14.4, more than NFLer Keenan Allen
And as a sophomore, rb Bigelow avg 9.8 ypc and was 12th in the nation in 50+ runs…on only 44 carries!!! He had as many 50+ runs as kenjon Barner with almost 300 carries and Kadeem Carey with over 300 carries, as well as Giovanni Bernard, who was the first rb selected in this year’s NFL draft…he had 8 20+ runs, which averages out to one every 5.5 attempts…for comparisons, Carey, who led the ncaa in rushing and in 20+ runs, had 23 in 303 attempts, or one every 14 attempts!!
So that’s how I evaluate talent levels for various teams…hopefully my readers can understand why I feel Cal is very talented for a 3-9 football team
This is an excellent explanation and more or less exactly how I evaluate “talent” on a team’s roster.
Just keep in mind when handicapping that “talent” is just one piece of the puzzle. Texas has had more talent than everyone on their schedule over the past 3 years and have still struggled.
Good stuff!
I just don’t get why Texas continues to drown in mediocrity with all of the talent they have on their roster. I mean these guys are right up there with Bama in talent, but Mack Brown can’t seem to do anything to improve them. So far he’s been good at making 3 star players out of 5 star players. Then you look at the other end of the spectrum at coaches like Art Briles, who has 2 and 3 star talent playing like 4 star talent and has beaten Texas 2 out of the last 3 years. And even Bielema at Wisconsin, who very seldom was ever in the top 30 in recruiting, still managed to develop his 2 and 3 star OL recruits into 4 and 5 star talent and win the Big 10 a few times. Gary Patterson also gets the most out of his 3 star talent. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. So you’ve got to pay close attention to the coaches when trying to evaluate talent. I think Dykes will be fine at Cal. But he’s coming into a conference that I think is very good this year, so it will probably take him at least a couple years to get up to speed.. I think the Pac-12 is so good in their top 8 teams that because of their parity I think they could end up knocking themselves out of the national title picture.
seems like you missed the best coach at getting the most out of no name players bill snyder
I agree Robert. Snyder is in my top 5 best coaches in the country for his ability to evaluate and coach up players. Especially juco talent. But as good as Snyder is, there has still been times where he couldn’t quite get the chemistry he wanted to put together a great team. If you remember he had a few very average teams back in the early 2000’s that was probably responsible for his retirement the first time around. But he came back and found a second wind. The problem is when your dealing with the kind of talent that Snyder recruits, it’s hard to compete on a national stage against the really good upper echelon BCS teams like we’ve seen in recent years against teams like Arkansas and Oregon in their bowls. There’s simply too much talent and speed all over the field for KSU to stay with those kinds of teams with Snyder’s 2 and 3 star juco recruits. Luckily right now KSU is playing in a Big 12 conference that has been severely weakened by the departures of Nebraska, Texas A&M and Missouri, and has taken a serious dip in recruiting, especially in 2013. So I expect continued success by Snyder as long as the conference stays like it is.
thanks great answer makes a lot sense