Back in May BetOnline released SEC point spreads for 10 opening week games. Our resident SEC expert SabertStxVii gave his opinion on each game here. Now two months later let’s take another look at each game and any subsequent line movement over that time period.

Updated SEC point spreads for Week # 1 

South Carolina -12

This game was lined at South Carolina -8.5 when it opened at BetOnline. Sabert thought this should be a double digit spread and thought South Carolina would have a better than expected offense and a very solid defense. North Carolina will probably struggle in this game on offense and South Carolina should probably be able to hold them to under 100 yards rushing.

Based on Sabert’s original take on this game, the current number (-12) appears to be more accurate than the 8.5 BetOnline opener.

Vanderbilt +1.5

This game was lined at Vandy -2.5 back in May. The current line is closer to what Sabert expected since he believes Ole Miss is the better team. I like the under 54 in this game. It looks like Vandy will again have a solid D this season and Ole Miss should be improved on that side of the ball. The total was set at 50.5 last year and Vandy needed a late TD to send it over (27-26).

Arkansas -14

Nothing has changed in this game. The Hogs are still a 14 point favorite.

Florida -21

This is down from 21.5. I wouldn’t even consider Florida in this game. There is no way I would give 3 TDs betting on a Florida team that struggled to score last season and doesn’t look to be that much improved on offense this season. I’d prefer taking a chance on Toledo plus the points to keep this one within the number.

Kentucky -1.5 (Nashville)

This one was at -3 in May and even at -1.5 I still believe Kentucky is getting too much respect as an away favorite here. The Wildcats were 0-5 SU & ATS last season on the road and averaged a little less than 10 ppg (9.6) while giving up nearly 38 ppg (37.8). WKU plus the points at home will definitely be on my list of games to consider for week # 1.

Mississippi State +13.5 (Houston)

I hit this one at Oklahoma State -6.5 and wish I had hit it again at -7. Just don’t see how Mississippi State can keep pace with the Pokes in this one. However at 13.5 all the value on Oklahoma State has been sucked dry. At this point it is either Mississippi State or a no play. With Mississippi State struggling to score, I would lean to a no play.

Texas A & M -29

Up to 29 from 28 in May. The Aggies will probably put up 50+ here, but Rice is capable of scoring too. They scored 33 points or more in 8 of 13 games last year, including the last 5.

Alabama -21

I have seen this game lined all over the place at various offshore books. I have seen it as high as 24 and as low as 14. It seems to be settling in around 3 TDs. I’ve also seen a total on this one at 5Dimes at 48, which is a key number. I like the under at that number.

Georgia +2

This one is up from Georgia +1. Talk about a big game right out of the gate. The winner of this game enters the national championship conversation. Both offenses should be excellent and like Sabert I would lean towards the over 68, but that number is a little higher than I want to give, especially in an opener. Especially considering Clemson played 3 SEC teams last year (1-2 O/U) and not one of them combined to go over 60 points.

LSU -5 (in Arlington)

This line is up from -4.5. Les Miles and the Bayou Bengals are getting very little pre-season respect from the media whereas TCU is being discussed as a possible Big 12 contender. Definitely lean LSU in this game.

Let me hear what you guys think about each of these games.

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