Big 12 Football – And your 2013 Champ is?
We continue with our series of weekly Conference Conversations with the first of three Q & A sessions discussing Big 12 football.
Joining us this week will be Jay Beck of the Big 12 football blog Turfburner. Amanda Staver of RideSchooner, Ride, and the Senior Editor for the Oklahoma Sooners, and Allen Kenney of Blatant Homerism. It’s time to talk Big 12 football.
[box] Question # 1: Las Vegas has installed Texas as a slight favorite to win the Big 12 this year (+200) over Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (both +250). Who do you think wins the conference between these three and are there any other teams that could realistically surprise the oddsmakers and challenge these teams for the conference title? Why?[/box]Jay Beck – Turfburner.com: On paper, I’d agree with the Vegas oddsmakers that Texas should be the favorite to win the Big 12. They return 19 starters from a season ago and have the most experienced quarterback in the league.
But that doesn’t mean they aren’t without questions. The defense is coming off one of the worst performances statistically in school history, although youth and injuries played a big role in the results. Their defensive unit will have much to prove that last year was nothing more than an aberration as Manny Diaz enters his third season running the Longhorns’ defense.
On offense, Major Applewhite will take over play calling duties this season after Bryan Harsin left to take the head coaching job at Arkansas State. The good news is he does have play calling experience at both Rice and Alabama and knows exactly what he has to work with personnel wise.
If I’m choosing between Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to win the Big 12, I’m going with the Longhorns. That isn’t as much of an endorsement towards Texas as it is an indication that the Big 12 is simply going to be wide open this season. The Longhorns have the fewest question marks among the contenders, therefore they’d be my choice.
I love what is going on in Stillwater and Oklahoma State should have one of, if not the best, offenses in the league this season. But I’m still not sold on the defense and the removal of Bill Young as defensive coordinator only raises more questions in my opinion. Glen Spencer moves into that role this season after having coached the linebackers the previous four seasons.
Oklahoma State QB Clint Chelf (Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images)
In Norman, Oklahoma returns only four starters on defense, but who knows, maybe that is a good thing after the Sooners defense was shredded more than a few times last season. Given the youth on defense and the fact they are breaking in a new quarterback, it would seem the Sooners are a year away from regaining their perch atop the Big 12, although given the lack of a marquee team in the league, OU should be in contention all season.
To answer the last part of your question, I’d be surprised if anyone outside the three teams mentioned above wins the conference, but don’t count out TCU and even Baylor to make a serious run.
TCU should have quarterback Casey Pachall back under center to go along with a defense that will likely, once again, be one of the best in the Big 12. Plus, Waymon James returns at running back after missing most of last season with a knee injury and Nebraska transfer Aaron Green is eligible after sitting out a year giving which will giving the TCU running game a big boost.
Baylor would be my dark horse pick to step up and make some serious noise. If quarterback Bryce Petty can keep Baylor’s offense humming and the defense continues the improvement it showed towards the end of last season, the Bears will be a team that nobody in the Big 12 will be excited to play in 2013.
Amanda Staver – Ride Schooner, Ride: I usually tend to trust Vegas more than I do any preseason polls going into football seasons, but for 2013, I think Vegas has this one wrong. Texas over both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma is something I don’t see happening.
Out of the three, I honestly believe that the Cowboys have the best shot at bringing home their second Big XII title. The Sooners have quite a few questions marks, especially on the defensive side of the ball. A team not mentioned who I think has a decent shot at a Big XII title run is TCU. The Frogs first game of the season against LSU will tell us a lot about what type of team they will be this season.
Allen Kenney – Blatant Homerism: I honestly think as many as five of the 10 teams in the Big 12 have a chance at winning the league in 2013. The conference truly is wide open this season.
I’m rolling with Oklahoma State as my pick to win the conference. There’s a lot to like about this team, starting with Mike Gundy, who has established himself as one of the best coaches in the country. In a league that is going through significant turnover at quarterback, the Pokes boast two quality options under center in Clint Chelf and J.W. Walsh. OSU also has a host of solid veterans at the skill positions in an offense that can plug and play with the best of them. On the other side of the ball, Calvin Barnett could turn out to be the best defensive lineman in the conference, and he has a solid corps of defensive backs behind him looking to slow all those prolific offenses. Lastly, the schedule breaks pretty well for the Cowboys, as they catch Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma in Stillwater.
If you’re looking for a surprise sleeper outside of OU, OSU and Texas, how about Baylor? Art Briles has significantly upgraded the talent in Waco and has a legit Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Lache Seastrunk. With their breakneck no-huddle O, the Bears will probably be able to match any team in the league in terms of sheer firepower. This is a dangerous team that could turn out to be Briles’ best yet if quarterback Bryce Petty is the real deal.
Please let us know who you think will win the Big 12 this year by leaving a comment below.
3 thoughts on “Big 12 Football – And your 2013 Champ is?”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
The more I study on the teams, the more I think Oklahoma is the best value at +370. Many will call that a “homer” call, but whenever it comes to money, I don’t have a hard time betting against my Sooners.
Whenever it comes to conference picks, I think “value” is the key word. And, as has been indicated by most writers in this interview, this year’s Big 12 conference is the most wide open it has been in some time. I don’t think there will be any team coming out of the Big 12 season without at least one loss. According to Vegas, the Sooners sit at 4th with the +370. That is great value on a team that has a bigger tradition of winning of Big 12 championships than any other team in the conference. Year in, and year out, this is ALWAYS the number 1 goal Bob Stoops sets for his teams.
I think we are all familiar with the weak points of this team — new starting QB and a lot of new faces on defense. But, what seem to be the glaring weaknesses to most, have me intrigued about this team. I am anxiously awaiting the new QB regime. After watching good defenses go after Landry Jones for four years because he was lousy against pressure and couldn’t run to save his life, this season, no matter who wins the starting job (I think it will be Blake Bell), will have the talent and ability to run as well as pass. Hence, the start of the new Oklahoma horizon — the age of the mobile QB. Throw into that scenario what looks to be a more experienced and better running back corps this year, a stable of experienced wide receivers who are also very talented, and an offensive line that is both experienced and deep, I think we have the makings of a solid year on the offensive front.
Defense is the biggest question mark to me. Last season, Mike Stoops made the mistake of selling out to the spread offenses of the Big 12 and focused on “bending” but not “breaking.” There were many plays that Oklahoma ran without a single linebacker in the game. The result was offenses loading up and running up the gut on Oklahoma for big gains. Mike has admitted many times to his mistakes in scheming last season. Because of this, I look for a balanced defensive strategy this year which should result in better production on the field. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think there is a single defense in the Big 12 that can claim the status as a “shut down” defense, especially Oklahoma. Offensive schemes being what they are in the Big 12, it is just nearly impossible to achieve. There is a reason why Alabama got beat by Texas A&M last season and Saban has been bemoaning the spread offenses in the media ever since. A more balanced Oklahoma defensive scheme should place more checks and balances on opposing offenses with the run and pass.
I just can’t get on the Texas band wagon and crown them without seeing consistency on both the offensive and defensive side of the field. Let’s face it, Mack Brown has lost “it” with this team. He can’t seem to recruit the right players, he can’t seem to “identify” with them anymore, he can’t seem to hire the right coaching staff to help him turn it around, and every year of par and sub par play just continues to disintegrate the confidence of both players and fan base. I can’t expect any different in this team until I can actually “see” a difference.
Oklahoma State will have another dynamic offense, but will the defense be any better? Their defense has always been questionable. The defense of two years ago, whenever they won the Big 12 title, was more “opportunistic” than good. We saw hard it is to make lightning strike twice in the same spot last year. I also do not see the firing of Bill Young a positive for this team. He is the first defensive coordinator that has actually had some signs of improvement evolving with this team. Now, they have to get adjusted to a new defensive coordinator and new schemes. While Oklahoma State’s offense will keep them in every game this year and help them to win most of them, their defense will always be a liability.
Yes, Baylor and TCU have outside chances of winning this conference this year. But, the key word is “outside.” I am one who will also throw K-State in there because even though it looks like a rebuilding year for them, you can never count out Snyder’s ability to rebuild and COACH.
Oklahoma’s schedule is the biggest drawback to their chances of winning, but based on the value and potential, they would be my bet this year.
One problem I have with Texas winning the conference that I haven’t seen talked about much is they have a QB who doesn’t have a type A personality, which I think really hurts him when it comes to being a team leader. Ash has never delivered the leadership this team needs when they get in tough tight games. Sometimes their talent alone can win these games. But I’ve seen several incidents over the last couple of years that tells me Ash is probably not going to change no matter how much game experience he has. The game at Kansas last year was a good example. When things started going south for Texas and Mack Brown took an ineffective Ash out of the game for Case McCoy, they just did escape by the skin of their teeth. But what does that say about Ash and his overall confidence as a leader?
Luckily talent and a little last minute luck got UT over the hump in that game as well as the week earlier against a defenseless Baylor. They were just plain lucky against OSU earlier in the season after OSU lost their starting QB. Everybody knows Texas won that game because of a blown call where Ash lost a fumble on the goal line and it wasn’t called. They were also very fortunate to win their bowl game with Oregon St. If it hadn’t been for some terrible coaching mistakes by Mike Reilly, the door would have never been open for a UT comeback. If it hadn’t been for a couple fortunate calls, catches and lucky bounces, Texas could have just as easily been a 7-6 team last season.The last 3 years Texas has looked like a team that has the talent, but no identity. They seem to freewheel it every game and hope they find the right formula that works. Unlike for example a Bama program who knows what they are going to do each game, and it’s up to their opponents to make adjustments. UT has the top 5 recruiting talent to where they should also be able to approach every game this way, but they don’t. This season Mack wants to make even more changes to become a hurry up offense. Again, they are pretty much throwing crap at the wall and hoping something sticks. With UT you have a type “B’ QB, much like Landry Jones was at OU, which is the reason why OU hasn’t won the conference and gone to a BCS bowl since 2010. Ash doesn’t really have the leadership skills that you would expect from a conference champion or a top 5 program. I know this conference is wide open, and Texas has a hell of a lot of talent and a favorable schedule. But a college team’s identity and QB leadership skills are HUGE factors for success at this high of level.
Exactly! Every year they have top starred recruits on both sides of the ball and everyone gets on their bandwagon because they look like they have to be great with that kind of talent. However, it hasn’t been equating to championship seasons for some time now. It all points to leadership — on the field, and off the field.