A Quick Look At Week One Point Spreads
Some week one point spreads are out at 5Dimes and I discussed several of the games last week with Kevin on his College Football Zealots podcast.
Some games have already seen significant line movement. South Carolina opened as a 14.5 point favorite at home against North Carolina. That line has dropped to 10.5.
The other game that has seen some significant line movement is a Thursday night SEC matchup between Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. The Commodores opened as a 6.5 point home favorite, but the number has since dropped to Vandy -2.5.
A few other games that caught my attention were:
Virginia Tech +22.5
As a primarily dog player I am always looking at the points, so despite Alabama being the opponent, getting the Hokies and four scores caught my attention. I believe the line is probably a little inflated based upon last years teams.
Everyone’s last memory of Alabama was their total dismantling of Notre Dame in the National Championship game. Virginia Tech is coming off their worst season in two decades.
Once again Alabama lost several quality players (9) to the NFL draft, and once again they will be replacing those players with 5 star recruits who will most likely be hearing their name called in future NFL drafts.
But to expect the Alabama offense to just start the new season where it left off last year, especially after losing 3 multi-year starters along the OL, is asking a lot. Especially against what should be a solid Virginia Tech defense that returns 9 starters.
My biggest reservation with Virginia Tech is of course their offense and Logan Thomas at quarterback. Both were terrible last year and neither looked that much better this spring.
Bowling Green +2.5
Good defenses getting points at home always catches my attention, and Bowling Green had a very good defense last season. The Falcons ended the 2012 season ranked 6th in the country in total defense (296.6 ypg) and 10th in scoring defense (allowing 16.8 ppg). They also return 19 starters, tied for most in the nation according to Phil Steele.
Tulsa is coming off an 11 win season and will be the favorite to repeat as Conference-USA Champions. They are again loaded on offense, returning 7 starters including QB Cody Green and a two-headed monster at RB (Liberty Bowl MVP Trey Watts and Ja’Terian Douglas combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards last year).
However the Hurricane did lose 8 starters on defense and must replace all four starting linemen and both cornerbacks. Bowling Green really struggled on offense last year, averaging only 22.9 ppg (10th in the MAC).
So it looks like a matchup of strength vs strength (Bowling Green D vs Tulsa O) and weakness vs weakness (Bowling Green O vs Tulsa D).
In a game that figures to be fairly low scoring, I definitely lean toward the better defense getting some points, especially at home.
Here are the latest week one point spreads at 5Dimes:
| College Football | Spread | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC at Hawaii | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Thu 8/29 | 101 USC | -19 -120 | |||||
| 12:00PM | 102 Hawaii | +19 -120 | |||||
| Tulsa at Bowling Green | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Thu 8/29 | 109 Tulsa | -2½ -120 | |||||
| 1:00PM | 110 Bowling Green | +2½ -120 | |||||
| North Carolina at South Carolina | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Thu 8/29 | 117 North Carolina | +10½ -120 | |||||
| 6:00PM | 118 South Carolina | -10½ -120 | |||||
| Mississippi at Vanderbilt | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Thu 8/29 | 119 Mississippi | +2½ -120 | |||||
| 9:15PM | 120 Vanderbilt | -2½ -120 | |||||
| Rica at Texas A&M | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sat 8/31 | 131 Rice | +27½ -120 | |||||
| 12:00PM | 132 Texas A&M | -27½ -120 | |||||
| Oklahoma State vs Mississippi State, in Houston | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sat 8/31 | 133 Oklahoma State | -10½ -120 | |||||
| 12:00PM | 134 Mississippi State | +10½ -120 | |||||
| Penn State vs Syracuse, in East Rutherford | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sat 8/31 | 145 Penn State | -4½ -120 | |||||
| 12:00PM | 146 Syracuse | +4½ -120 | |||||
| Washington State at Auburn | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sat 8/31 | 157 Washington State | +12½ -120 | |||||
| 12:00PM | 158 Auburn | -12½ -120 | |||||
| Temple at Notre Dame | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sat 8/31 | 179 Temple | +23½ -120 | |||||
| 3:30PM | 180 Notre Dame | -23½ -120 | |||||
| Virginia Tech vs Alabama, in Atlanta | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sat 8/31 | 181 Virginia Tech | +22½ -120 | |||||
| 5:30PM | 182 Alabama | -22½ -120 | |||||
| Georgia at Clemson | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sat 8/31 | 183 Georgia | +1 -120 | |||||
| 8:00PM | 184 Clemson | -1 -120 | |||||
| LSU vs TCU, in Arlington | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sat 8/31 | 185 LSU | -6½ -120 | |||||
| 9:00PM | 186 TCU | +6½ -120 | |||||
| Colorado vs Colorado State, in Denver | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Sun 9/1 | 187 Colorado | pk -120 | |||||
| 12:00PM | 188 Colorado State | pk -120 | |||||
| Florida State at Pittsburgh U | |||||||
| game must be played before September 5th for action | |||||||
| Mon 9/2 | 189 Florida State | -10 -120 | |||||
| 8:00PM | 190 Pittsburgh U | +10 –120 | |||||
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- Next Marshall Spring Practice Success in Rebuilding of Defense
36 thoughts on “A Quick Look At Week One Point Spreads”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
FSU opened at -8.5 now -10…Pitt should struggle early…having said that, you won’t find me laying DD on the road opening day with a freshman QB…
Agreed. That is more or less what I said on the podcast when it was at 8.5. But I don’t have much confidence in Pitt to look at the home team getting DD …. and I usually love that scenario.
I also like TCU in Arlington against LSU. Think Frogs could be tough this year. Would like to see that get to +7.
I’m no SEC homer but i prefer not to fade them in OOC games…definitely not the top half…but you need to fill up your 10 game card anyway…hahaha
LSU played in 7 games last year that were determined by 7 points or less ….. 8 games decided by 8 points or less. Les has that team built to run the football and play good D, so they end up in a lot of close games. If TCU gets back up to +7, I believe they are definitely worth looking at.
But look at the year before when they scored 40+ 9 times…lots of blowouts…mettenberger’s 2nd year maybe they’re more comfortable with opening it up…and maybe he takes a big step this year…that’s the variable of playing week 1 games…you’re basing that on last year but maybe they play more like the year before
If you think TCU wins then it’s a play
If you think LSU wins but the spread is a little big then it’s a no play
Personally I think LSU wins…since the spread is one possesion (+7) then I’m not going near it, but would side with the SU winner
But I don’t have a real clue about the game in the first place…
I think TCU can win the game outright. They will be undervalued at the beginning of the season. Getting them and one score (+6.5 or better yet +7 if the line goes back up) is worth the risk.
Any thoughts from either of you about Penn State-Syracuse?
PSU/SYR…2 new QBs…1 new head coach…neutral field…way too much uncertainty for me…pass
BTW-why is everyone so high on TCU??
what did they do last year to give such optimism?
what was their signature win?
they lost their bowl game vs mediocre mich st
the top of their conference was weak last year…
OU got absolutely smashed by ND and TXAM…
KST got smashed by Oregon
why do you think they beat LSU which is top of the conference SEC?
just curious…
Agree w/ Trent about Penn St/Syracuse …. though depending on the number, the under might be a consideration.
TCU had a lot of injuries/suspensions last year. They had a young D that will only get better and a potential all-conference QB returning. Should definitely be a contender in the Big 12 this year.
Fair enough…but for a team that was pretty weak on offense last year and lost their top wr i think it’s asking a lot of Pachal in his first game back to turn around that offense vs LSU defense…remember, Pachal has faced the following non-aq teams in his career: Baylor in 2011, kansas and UVA last year…not exactly murderer’s row of defenses
Based on the last game of the year AT HOME vs Oklahoma this line should be 10 unless you think LSU drops off significantly, which would be foolish based on their yearly success over the last decade…value to me would be +11.5
good luck
I do not think LSU drops off much at all. Offense should be improved and D is always good, but may take a small step back on the DL after such heavy NFL-caliber losses (though they usually reload pretty good).
I just think TCU will be improved and believe it could be a one score game.
No commitment one way or another on my part at this time. But if line were to go back up to +7.5, I will certainly take a harder look at TCU.
There’s plenty of reason to think won’t be any better than last year (10-3 team who wasn’t top 10). As far as LSU’s success over last decade goes, they were great in 2003, 2007 and 2011, and not particularly special the other years. See
https://s12.postimg.org/en1fdi925/LSU_Rank.jpg (Compu-Picks rank of LSU by year)
https://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/LouisianaState.htm (LSU historical results by year)
If you believe TCU is a top 15 team or better (and I certainly do) then the LSU of 2004, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 or 12 would have a stiff challenge just to win the game, much less to cover a touchdown spread.
First of all, again explain to me why TCU is a top 15 team…and please no opinions
Secondly, you’re calling 11-2 seasons with blowout wins in bowl games as “nothing special” just shows how great a program they’ve been this last decade…
2005 they were 11-2 with a OT fg loss in reg season and their other loss was in sec champ game and they beat miami 40-3 in bowl game and that’s a “down” year…2010 similar season with one of 2 losses to the NC Auburn…2006 11-2 27 pt sugar bowl win another season that this amazing TCU team could beat…hahahaha
Let me see TCU go 11-2 in the SEC with a 3TD win in their bowl game and refer to it as not “special”
TCU has consistently been a top 15 program; four of the last five years they were top 15 by the AP ( https://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/app_final_team.cfm?TeamID=29#.UZF9prXvt8F ) or almost any other measurement you could find, and three of those four years were top ten.
As far as LSU goes, in 2010 they went 11-2… but with a heck of a lot of close game breaks (30-24 vs suspension-depleted UNC, 20-14 vs WV, 16-14 vs Tennessee and the 13 men on the field, 33-29 at Florida, 24-21 vs Bama, 43-36 vs 4-8 Ole Miss; they lost two games by 7/8 points, so there was some close game luck the other way, but net-net that was VERY favorable for the Tigers).
Other than Bama, that’s a lot of struggles against teams outside, and sometimes well outside, the top 25.
So yeah, I’d say that a top 15 team would have had a solid shot at beating 2010 LSU, and very likely would have covered a 7 point spread.
Consistently being a top 15 team in the Mtn West is a lot different than being top 15 while playing in the SEC or even the B12
Their first taste of big conference play and they proved to be just plain mediocre…even losing to a 6-6 mich st team in the bowl (both me and pez had sparty)
So all i’m saying is that TCU still has a lot to prove…and just proclaiming them a “top 15” team is a little lofty to me, while at the same time diminishing what LSU has accomplished the past decade
Like it or not, LSU has earned the benefit of the doubt with their performance over the last 10 years
TCU does not have the same pedigree
good luck
Agree to disagree I guess. First year in an AQ league and their QB got arrested early October and there were other dismissals during the offseason. IMO that was more important than “AQ league shellshock.” Given their success vs AQ opponents in prior years (0-1 in 11, 3-0 including Rose Bowl in 10, 2-0 including win at Clemson in 09, 1-1 in 08) I think their suspension issues make a pretty reasonable explanation for a down year in 2012.
every team deals with dismissals…i don’t want to go round and round with you…but playing 2 aq teams a year and going 1-1 or 2-0 is a lot different than playing 9 or 10 aq teams a year…you can’t just prorate the success in a few games over 10 games…very different story
A lot of TCU love here. I see LSU winning by double digits but I’ve been wrong several times before. Any educated guesses on the opening spread on softer sites? I imagine bovada will not put LSU below a TD so I see value in jumping on the 5dimes line early. Thoughts?
Hi Seth. LSU opened -7.5 and it has been holding pretty steady at -6.5 last few weeks. Don’t really know if it’ll get back (or cross) 7 again.
the move to 6.5 might have something to do with Jeremy Hill starting rb for LSU arrested…if you had already thought that they might take a step back due to heavy losses on Def, then fading them at more than a TD once their starting rb got arrested made a lot of sense
I’ve been following the spread on a daily basis. It’s been moving from 6.5 to 7 pretty frequently. My bet was based purely on the assumption that the line will move upwards once the public sees LSU as only a 6.5 point favorite. I see this closing somewhere around 9, particularly if Hill’s suspension is lifted.
For a play strictly on the “line” I would take it now…moving to -6 isn’t as bad as moving to -7, and moving to -5.5 won’t effect you as much as moving to -7.5…i wouldn’t feel regret playing it now until it got down to -4
Yeah I made a 1 unit play at -7.5 before Hill and a 1 unit play at -6.5 after as I still like it. If it continues to drop, then oh well. My thinking is it opens at 7.5 or higher on Bovada.
Seth-
don’t ever make a play on a fav at -7.5…the move to -7 is worth so much more than a move the opposite way to -8…it’s worth waiting to see which way the line moves…if the dog gets some respect it will move to -7
if not, then the sharps aren’t interested, which is telling in itself…
I hope you guys are right and it heads towards 9 or even 10 before kickoff. DD in a game where the total could be in the mid to low 40’s. That’s worth a unit.
I’ve been trying to raise the ire of the SEC fans in other forums saying TCU is going to upset LSU in the opener. But the truth is we’re just too far out on that game with too many unanswered questions. But gun to my head, if I had to pick one of the best teams from the SEC vs one of the best from the Big 12 at a neutral location, I would take the SEC minus the 6.5 or whatever points.
I’ve been concentrating on the Big 12, so I’m sure Saber and some of the others here can probably supply more info right now on LSU than I can. I know that last season everybody talked about TCU being the youngest BCS team in the country. But LSU wasn’t far behind in the number of starting true freshmen. I think maybe a little too much will be made of who and how many left the LSU defense, just like it was with TCU’s defense at the beginning of last year. But the truth is, Miles is very good at recruiting and developing talent. He’s got a great system that never rebuilds, but reloads.
My main concern for TCU in this game is their OL. Will it have developed enough to be able to hold up when the LSU LB’s and safeties start creeping up to come after a rusty Pachall? Which brings me to the second concern. Just how sharp will Pachall be in his first start in over a year? Will Pachall even win the starting job? Will Patterson continue to play Boykin on and off in this game despite his inability to hot read defenses last year? Will Jeremy Hill play for LSU? If he does, he’ll be the best RB that TCU will see all year. Like I said, there’s still a ton of questions to be answered about these teams this far out from kickoff.
TCU is well coached and has the best defense in the Big 12. But this is still the SEC vs the Big 12. And lets not forget that the 3rd best team in the SEC West easily took care of Big 12 co-champs OU in their bowl game. And Oregon easily dispatched of Big 12 co-champs KSU in their bowl game. This doesn’t bode very well for the Big 12’s future or where they stand right now compared to the rest of the country. The conference is so down right now that it wouldn’t suprise me if LSU wins and covers against TCU and TCU goes on to win the Big 12. Keeping in mind that third place SEC West finisher Texas A&M could have easily dispatched of this conference if they were still in it last year. I need to see some big improvements in the Big 12 before I become a believer again. TCU and OSU have the most upside of all of the teams. But I’m still not sure how that compares to the rest of the country that early in the season. We’re going to find out a lot about the Big 12 in September when they play the SEC in 3 games.
GS-
I was gonna comment to Pez when he said he feels TCU might challenge for the B12 title…that’s all well and good, but that also might mean 9-3 challenges for the B12 title
at this point based on last season challenging for B12 conference title and challenging the top of the SEC are two very different tasks
And as you guys know (this is for the newbies to the site) i’m no SEC homer…but the bottom line is the bottom line
And the B12 was weak last season and is trending down while the SEC continues to be the strongest conference in the ncaa
“He’s got a great system that never rebuilds, but reloads”
LSU was very much rebuilding in 2008, and it’s not like 2009 and 10 were great either (that’s true of LSU overall, but even the D wasn’t all that amazing in any of those seasons).
LSU lives and dies with its turnover margin; when they’re running +15 or better, they tend to be very good (2012 was actually an oddly meh season for LSU given their huge turnover margin), and when the margin is lower, things tend not to work so well.
you’re kind of proving my point…look over 2005, 06, 10…those are seasons 99.9% of the programs in this country would love to have…and in assesing LSU you consider them “not special”…that just shows what kind of program they’ve been…
When 11 wins and blowout wins in bowl games are considered down years for a program you’re proving my point that they are a dominant program
cfn…It might be called rebuilding by any other standards. But LSU’s raw numbers tell a different story. Their worst defense statistically came in 2009 when they gave up 326 ypg with a +7 TO margin. I know a lot of teams who would kill for those numbers. In 2010 LSU gave up 309 ypg with a +5 TO margin. Both of those teams gave up about 135 ypg rushing. Which again, many teams would kill for.
TCU’s best defender (Devonte Fields) was suspended today for first two games and will miss LSU game.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2013/devonte-fields-suspended/
Now the line is TCU +8.5. Seems like an overreaction.
I actually don’t believe its an overreaction for a few reasons. Devonte Fields was the one mismatch for this LSU offense. They were going to be required to double team on the outside, allowing the linebackers to move up and stop the run. The formula to beat the LSU team is to force Mettenberger to do it, and I think he struggles doing that. LSU doesn’t open up their playbook to him for a reason.
I still think LSU wins this game, but I thought it may be close. Now I’m not so sure because I see TCU not being successful at stopping the LSU run at all.
Both of these teams were relatively similar last year. Both had great defenses, and both struggled on offense. If Pachall returns for TCU, I think that they have, or had, a shot of beating LSU thru the air. Now, not so sure.
When it comes down to it, this just is stacking the chips against TCU. I think there is too much noise around this TCU team with a drunk QB maybe coming back and Fields suspended etc to back them. Also, no shot im touching close to giving double digits to an LSU team on the road in first game of the season.
I agree with Saber, I don’t believe the line going up is an overreaction. Guys, keep in mind that TCU not only lost Fields at one DE, they also lost Maponga (1st team MWC 2011) at the other DE posistion when he declared early for the NFL draft. So last year TCU had bookend NFL talent DE, now they have none. To add to the problem, if there was a weakspot with the TCU defense last year, it was their young linebacker group. They didn’t gel together as well as Patterson would have liked. Luckily that weakness was disguised by very good defensive line play. But they won’t be able to hide any potential weaknesses against a very good run game of LSU. So losing fields was huge. He was not only the best player on the TCU defense, he was also their leader.
On the other side, I’ve heard that QB Mettenberger has improved this spring under LSU’s new OC. Although last season was a little tough on him, he did have his moments. I’m expecting a little more consistency out of him this year. It will be interesting aspect to this game to see if Miles plays Jeremy Hill now that Devonte Fields has been suspended. Patterson suspends Fields for something that doesn’t seem as major as what Hill did. The backlash would be huge if they let Hill play while Fields is suspended. I know that the SEC plays by their own rules with things like this, but I guarantee you the national media will be all over that.